IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA
Poster 3: Disaster Toolbox: Models, Frameworks and Indicators
Simple Probability Estimation of Drought Losses in China Based on Observed Events and Simulated/Projected SPI [PB 29]
1National Climate Center, China Meteorological Adminsitration, Beijing 100081, China; 2Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University, Tübingen, Germany; 3Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/School of Remote Sensing, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China
In this study, we use a rather simple method to estimate the probability of losses from meteorological droughts in China by using observed and simulated/projected drought data. The data are based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which has been calculated from observed monthly precipitation data for the period 1961–2014 and from simulated/projected precipitation data for the period 1950-2100. The SPI time series are assessed on their monthly intensity and the area of drought occurrence. The projected data and further results are validated on observed past events and annual loss information. Based on the spatial-temporal information of SPI intensities, the probability empirical and simulated time series are calculated. The final results include estimated return periods for drought intensities and economic drought losses, which are presented for the probable average annual losses and probable maximum event losses from meteorological droughts in China.
Vulnerability Indices for Disaster and Emergency Response (VIDER) [PB 30]
REM Programme, UME School, IUSS Pavia, Italy
This poster demonstrates a 'proof of concept' set of four disaster vulnerability indices that are targeted towards the needs of emergency planners and incorporate robust estimates of uncertainty. The concepts for these indices were selected based on their relevance to emergency planners: lack of evacuation capability, lack of communication capability, lack of damage control capability, and lack of preparedness capability.
These indices were trialed for the Australian state of New South Wales using data from the 2011 Australian Census on the smallest areal unit. Base variables were selected based on their availability and empirical evidence for their relationship with the concepts or strong theoretical connection. To construct the indices a Monte Carlo simulation was implemented that utilised base data modelled as random normal variables and a range of common composite index construction choices. A custom metric of uncertainty was developed based on the simulation. Results for each index are reported and mapped as quintiles and the relationships between them were analysed, including on a spatial basis. Analysis of the results indicates that these more targeted indices may provide more useful information to emergency planners over a single index of social vulnerability. The study also finds large uncertainties in the results, suggesting that end users should interpret the results of composite indicators, especially where they don't come with estimates of uncertainty, with caution. The highest and lowest quintiles exhibited the lowest uncertainty indicating higher performance in identifying the most and least vulnerable areas. Further work is required to better account for uncertainty and variability in base demographic data, especially where that relates to the use of older data sources to predict present vulnerabilities.
IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience [PB 31]
1EPFL, Switzerland; 2USACE, USA
Responses to disasters, both natural and technology-related, often show the limitations of traditional risk assessment and management. In the context of risk, resilience has been discussed as both a supplement and an alternative to conventional risk management. IRGC describes resilience as a risk management strategy when there is much uncertainty about impacts and the need to prepare to cope with surprises.
Both governments and industry explicitly call for resilience-based risk management. Even though the field is fluid, mapping risk and resilience in the context of governance as well as summarizing how resilience has been manifested, managed and measured in different fields and sectors is needed.
The IRGC ‘Resilience In And For Risk Governance’ (RIARG) resource guide stresses the importance of including resilience as an important component of the risk governance process, including in research, policy, strategies, and practices. IRGC’s objective with the guide is to propose an annotated bibliography of existing ideas and tools for integrating risk and resilience and measuring resilience and the effectiveness of actions taken to build it. The guide focuses in particular on metrics for resilience assessment and instruments for resilience management. It aims to encourage the development of methods for resilience quantification.
The resource guide is composed of invited authored papers, which the poster will present, highlighting both the variety of approaches to resilience as well as common features and dynamics. It is designed to help scientists and practitioners working on risk governance and resilience evaluation, by giving them background information on the various perspectives and guiding them to the best available literature sources.
The resource guide was developed in 2016 and will be launched at IDRC 2016.
Risk Mitigation Model for Increasing Local Implementation Capacities with Innovative Engineering Techniques [PB 32]
INTERNATIONAL BLUE CRESCENT FOUNDATION, Turkey
IBC recognizes the need of disaster preparedness in cities, relatively concentrates on developing better alternative models for risk mitigation. K70 Rapid screening model as well as empowerment of local groups important stage for disaster preparedness. Improving local application capacities by innovative techniques and alternative models deploy the K70 Rapid Screening" which developed by IBC. K70 software predicts ferroconcrete based buildings deconditioning after disaster. The model enables easy assessment of buildings under risk vocational assessment for capacity building. Furthermore we believe this model can be used at risk mitigation, especially over-populated cities where the disaster risks are high and risk quantification is limited. The model already applied four different districts of İstanbul, with great success. Technical project team applied K70 software and the Model to 11 different neighborhood in Istanbul. Buildings that inspected by the software, ranked and reported according to K70 ranking.
Introduction of New Method on Engineering Risk Assessment ─ Engineering Error and Effects Analysis (3EA) [PB 33]
Nargan, Iran, Islamic Republic of
Construction and commissioning accidents investigation shows that engineer’s errors in basic and detailed phases are the main causes. We will gain more efficiency of investment if we apply a method for Error identification and risk assessment in basic and detailed phases. This Risk assessment method can reduce costs and improve environmental protection, safety and reliability of designs.
The main purpose of this study is to identify engineer’s errors and analyze their HSE effects. The method is applied in 7 oil and gas engineering projects in Iran and the following results have been achieved:
• Raising the level of engineer’s attention to safety precautions and environmental friendly design
• Reducing the cost of improving the level of safety and environmental protection
• Improving environmental protection, safety and design reliability
• Improving procedures related to design process and control
Numerical Investigation on Dynamic Increase Factor Recommended by UFC 4-023-03 Guideline [PB 34]
1Babol University of Technology,Babol, Iran; 2International Institute of Earthquake Engineering & Seismology, Tehran, Iran
Progressive collapse is a dynamic and nonlinear phenomenon. According to the static analytical approach presented in several existing regulations, a load enhancement factor of 2 is required to simulate nonlinear and inertial effects. However, in nonlinear static procedure, the multiplier is only used for estimating the dynamic influences of the loads. The current research investigates the progressive damage potential of RC frame structures subjected to sudden column removal and the accuracy of the applied dynamic increase factor (DIF), in nonlinear static method to approximate the nonlinear dynamic solution. For this purpose, based on the acceptance criteria recommended by UFC 4-023-03 document, nonlinear static (push down) analyses have been carried out to evaluate the progressive failure resisting capacity of intermediate RC moment resisting frames due to instantaneous central-column elimination at different elevation locations. Likewise, incremental dynamic analyses have been conducted to assess the conservatism of ultimate load carrying capacities obtained from nonlinear static procedures. The outcomes reveal that, for more precise response, incorporation of nonlinear effects in the static analytical procedure makes the DIF be significantly less than 2. The influence of the elevation location element loss on the structure’s susceptibility degree to collapse is also discussed.
Simple and Standardized Model of "Estimative Risk Assessment" in Iran (2014-2016) [PB 35]
1Iranian Karamodiran Institute, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2Iranian Red crescent Society, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran
The main objective is increasing the resilience of communities. The applied objective consists of helping local authorities to assess the risks as a prerequisite for the preparation of specific emergency plans and for allocation of resources by using an easy and standardized method
This study is an applied and operational research which offers a mathematical, analytical, dynamic and yet a simple model to the relevant authorities, in order to assess different risks. Multiple choice questions were used in order to assess the level of knowledge of local managers and training packages, discussion sessions and some tables and guidelines were applied for risk assessment workshops with an easy estimation method. Finally, this model was trained and applied to 167 county council member managers in eight cities of Markazi province in Iran.
The results and findings are the following:
• Inadequate knowledge of local managers regarding the issue of risk and disaster management
• Insufficient access to advisors and specialists in the area of risk assessment
• Providing a simple model for risk assessment for local communities
• Non-specialist managers and unskilled experts can quickly learn and understand this model
• Applicability of this model in different local communities
• Local authorities accept this method generally
And the result is that for communities which are going through their early stages of risk reduction path and communities which are facing shortage of specialized human resources in this field, using “Estimative Risk Assessment Model” appears to be a suitable starter method.