Integrative Risk Management - towards resilient cities
28 August - 1 September 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA
The programme includes the IDRC Davos 2016 agenda of sessions, plenary sessions, special panels and workshops. Click on the session title for more details.
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IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA
Session 12: Integrative Planning Towards Resilient Networks and Cities
ID: 335 / Session 12: 1
Topics: Natural & Man-Made Disasters, Land Use/City Planning
Keywords: urban risks, spatial planning, governance
Governing Risk Reduction in the Built Environment: the Case of Victoria, Australia
University of Melbourne, Australia
Human settlements represent significant and ongoing investments of human cultural, economic and physical capital. The development of cities and towns is informed by a number of dynamic forces that exert influence within the constraints of existing constructed environments. In particular, the relative “irreversibility” of the underlying patterns of infrastructure, roads and land tenure imposes considerable constraints upon risk management. In combination, this physical realm is managed to a greater or lesser degree by an array of government agencies responsible for spatial planning, infrastructure and transport, natural systems, and risk management.
Viewing governance as the wide range of actors and institutions with various formal and informal levels of influence, this paper’s goal is to critically examine the changes that have occurred over time in the management of natural hazard risks in the built environment of Victoria, Australia. The paper begins by reporting the results of a review of the main elements of the built environment in Victoria, and corresponding risk profiles according to the main hazard categories. A critical description of the agencies and processes associated with emergency management and risk reduction in Victoria is then reported.
The paper’s main finding is that that while significant and valuable changes have been made and continue to be made to the formal structures of risk management agencies over the last decade, a number of key factors have undermined the effectiveness of these measures. These factors include the path dependency of associated regulatory systems, such as urban planning, local government, transport and water catchment agencies, the difficulties of modifying existing settlement patterns, entrenched expectations of settlement types, the emergence of new categories of risk, and vulnerability and climate change. The paper concludes with key recommendations for change, particularly focusing on those relating to meaningful integration of urban planning with risk reduction activities.
Governing Risk Reduction in the Built Environment the Case of Victoria, Australia, Alan Peter MARCH from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Dr Alan March is Associate Professor in Urban Planning. He is Director of the Bachelor of Environments degree that spans the Faculties of Architecture, Building and Planning, Engineering and Science. He is an Associate of the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute and has been the Leader of the research theme Risk Resilience and Transformation & and of Cities and Towns.
Alan’s publications and research include examination of the practical governance mechanisms of planning and urban design, in particular the ways that planning systems can successfully manage change and transition as circumstances change. He is particularly interested in the ways that planning and design can modify disaster risks, and researches urban design principles for bushfire. His current work also considers the ways that urban planning is seeking to establish new ways to spatialise urban management
ID: 405 / Session 12: 2
Topics: Natural & Man-Made Disasters, Critical Infrastructures, Water & Energy Supply, Land Use/City Planning, Civil Protection
Keywords: Risk-informed design, defence in depth, probabilistic risk analysis, critical infrastructure, urban planning
Risk-informed Urban Planning: Adaptation of the Concepts of Siting and Design of Nuclear Power Plants towards more Resilient Urbanisation
Mott MacDonald Ltd
Currently half of the world’s population lives in cities. The concentration of people, assets and critical infrastructure in cities exacerbates the potential of natural and man-made hazards to cause catastrophic cascading effects far beyond city’s and national borders. In fact “Failure in Urban Planning” is classified as one of the 28 global risks in the Global Risk Report of the World Economic Forum and has been identified among those risks for which South-East Asia and Latin America are the least prepared.
The urban infrastructure largely determines the city’s resilience. The resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb the stresses imposed by natural and man-made hazards and it is a function of its robustness, redundancy and flexibility. Cities are complex and interdependent systems: a resilient city will be a system capable to use all elements of its infrastructure in order to respond effectively to an arbitrary hazard.
The contemporary urban planning often lack regulatory guidance regarding what is necessary to increase resilience. Urban planning is currently facing challenges that are subject of studies in other fields from decades. The nuclear industry for example utilises design approaches based on the concept of citing and designing of NPPs towards predefined acceptable risk level. In particular the concepts of defense in depth (DiD), classification of safety functions and definition of safety classes for structures, hazard identification, probabilistic risk analysis and more recently the risk-informed design have significant potential for modifications and adaptations for applications in urban planning.
Current paper provides a brief overview of the main concepts used in siting and design of nuclear power plants, outlines the similarities between a NPP and large city when considered as complex interdependent systems and summarise the basic elements of the proposed herein Risk-Informed Urban Planning as a tool to drive a more resilient urbanisation.
City Resilience Index, The Rockefeller Foundation | Arup, 2014
Global Risks 2015, 10th Edition, World Economic Forum
WENRA, Western European Nuclear Regulator’s Association, Safety of new NPP designs, Study by WENRA Reactor Harmonization Working Group, October 2012
IAEA-TECDOC-1436, Risk informed regulation of nuclear facilities: Overview of the current status, IAEA, 2005
INSAG-25, A Framework for an Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making Process, A REPORT BY THE INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR SAFETY GROUP, IAEA, 2011
Deckert, G., Risk Informed Design as Part of the Systems Engineering Process, CHSF Symposium AIAA NASA October 14-15, 2010
ID: 17 / Session 12: 3
Topics: Cyber Security, ICT Sector Robustness, Critical Infrastructures, Surveillance, Emerging Risks
Keywords: Industrie 4.0, information technology, Internet of Things, vulnerabilities, cyber security
Risks of Industry 4.0 - An Information Technology Perspective
Fraunhofer IOSB, Germany
The term "Industry 4.0" denotes the advent of the fourth industrial revolution which will be characterized by the optimized and networked use of information across the complete life cycles of both products and production assets. The exploitation of Industry 4.0 paradigms in terms of economic benefit, flexibility and better-informed decision taking requires the availability and provision of adequate information across all engineering and production value chains in an interoperable way, preferably based upon international standards. Such information is the result of aggregation and fusion functions applied to (big) data from various heterogeneous sources, often under real-time conditions and from production plants under constant change and different ownership. This comprises a challenge for the provision of an efficient, secure and dependable information management infrastructure.
Up to now, an hierarchical structure of information technology (IT) systems, the so-called automation pyramid, is predominant in industrial production environments. This leads to a separation of office and production networks that shield the safety- and real-time critical field and controller level from inadequate access from upper levels and remote users. Now, with the application of the paradigms of the Internet of Things and Services (IoTS), there is an architectural trend towards a mash-up of networked smart devices and services, deployed within and across enterprises in order to enable new higher-level services and business models such as smart maintenance.
This contribution considers this architectural IT paradigm shift from a risk management perspective. What are the new risks and vulnerabilities associated with respect to security and dependability of production systems and critical infrastructures? How can these risks be taken into account already in the requirements analysis and design phase? What can be done in existing production environments for risk mitigation? The contribution provides a terminological structure and mirrors possible answers to these questions at emerging IoTS reference architectures.
Risks of Industry 4.0 - An Information Technology Perspective, Thomas USLAENDER from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Dr.-Ing. Thomas Usländer holds a degree in Computer Science from the University of Karlsruhe, Germany, and a PhD in Engineering of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany. He is head of the department “Information Management and Production Control” and deputy speaker of the business unit “Energy, Water and Environment” at the Fraunhofer IOSB (Institute of Optronics, System Technologies and Image Exploitation), Germany. His research interests include reference models and reference architectures for the Internet of Things and Services as well as the service-oriented analysis and design of open, secure and dependable architectures where he has numerous publications. He currently represents Fraunhofer IOSB in the W3C Web Of Things Special Interest Group, the German working groups on “Industrie 4.0” of both engineering and IT associations and is an invited speaker for research topics around the Internet of Things and Services. He was an invited expert of the European Commission, got the OMG Application Award 2000 and several best-paper awards in international conferences.
See his profile at http://www.linkedin.com/in/tuslaender
ID: 271 / Session 12: 4
Topics: Natural Hazards, Low Probability-High Consequence Events, Mobility / Transportation, Critical Infrastructures, Cascading Risks
Keywords: Transport networks, Risk assessment, Natural hazards
Stress Tests for Critical Transport Infrastructure due to Natural Hazards: a Case Study in Bologna, Italy
Roughan and O'Donovan Innovative Solutions Ltd.
Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods and landslides, have the potential to cause extensive damage to transport infrastructure. This damage can lead to significant losses due to the cost of repairs and the increase in travel times for passengers, which may have significant economic impacts. The EU-funded INFRARISK project has developed a stress testing methodology for critical transport infrastructure exposed to low probability, extreme natural hazard events. The aim of the project is to assist decision making with regard to the protection of critical transport infrastructure to ensure the resilience of such infrastructure against natural hazards. To demonstrate the methodology, stress tests are performed for a road network in Bologna, Italy, to evaluate the potential losses associated with low probability, extreme earthquake hazard scenarios. The selected road network is located along the Scandinavian-Mediterranean corridor of the trans-European transport network (TEN-T), which is considered a vital axis for the European economy and provides access to the city of Bologna. The vulnerability of the road network is evaluated according to the potential damage to the network due to seismic loading and earthquake-triggered landslides, and the risk is assessed in terms of the repair costs and the costs associated with the functionality loss of the network. The objective of the case study presented herein is to demonstrate the systematic application of a stress tests methodology for transport infrastructure to improve the resilience of urban environments to natural hazards.
Stress Tests for Critical Transport Infrastructure due to Natural Hazards a Case Study in Bologna, Italy, Julie Ann CLARKE from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Established in 2009, Roughan and O’Donovan Innovative Solutions (ROD-IS) consists of a collaboration of Roughan & O'Donovan Consulting Engineers, Prof. Eugene OBrien (University College Dublin, Ireland) and Prof. Alan O'Connor (Trinity College Dublin, Ireland) and brings together over thirty years of research in bridge and structural engineering in the fields of loading, design and assessment. ROD-IS’s area of expertise encompasses risk-based asset management, structural health monitoring, weigh-in-motion and traffic load modelling and we provide opportunities for clients to avail of these innovative services for the design, assessment and whole life optimised management of new and existing infrastructure. ROD-IS’s capabilities in complex bridge and structural engineering have been developed from a highly professional staff with broad international experience and the drive and passion to search for efficient and innovative solutions. ROD-IS’s clients include the European Commission, international road, rail and water authorities, and internationally-based small/medium enterprises.
ID: 237 / Session 12: 5
Topics: Frameworks, Social, Cultural, Ecological, Technical, Instiutional & Economic Resilience, Fragility/Robustness, Risk Assessment, Risk Modelling
Keywords: ISO 31000, Resilience Engineering, Smart Buildings, Internet of Things, Risk Assessment
Operationalization of an ISO 31000-Compliant Resilience Engineering Method, Applied to the Temperature Control in a Smart Building
ZHAW Zurich University of Applied Sciences
In response to the increased complexity of socio-technical systems, risk management strategies become accordingly complex and their associated risk engineering approaches are stretched to their practical and methodological limits, as is the case of the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). In recent years resilience engineering has emerged as the discipline to close this complexity gap. This contribution links the principles of the novel Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) and FMEA, a well-established method, in order to propose a feasible approach to manage system complexity and achieving thus an ISO 31000-compliant approach to operationalize resilience engineering. For this purpose, the case study of temperature control in smart buildings was selected to mirror the increase of complexity of a socio-technical system. The combined FRAM-FMEA method was successfully applied and yielded results above the single application of the respective methods. The results of the case study show that during normal operation conditions temperature control on small buildings operates safely, being only vulnerable to extreme weather patterns and contradicting behavior among users. However, with the introduction of Internet of Things (IoT) the system becomes vulnerable to IT threats that can gravely endanger the system. On the methodological level, the results show that the combined method is suitable to semi-quantitatively assess resilience: it shows where the system can fail and what could it happen. While it inherits some of the limitations of the original methodologies, its application makes resilience analyses more efficient. It can be then concluded that FRAM can accurately describe small sociotechnical systems (<20 analyzed functions) but it may be challenging to apply for large projects (e.g. critical infrastructures). Nonetheless FRAM demonstrated to be a useful communication tool with experts and combined with FMEA, a practical semi-quantitative approach to resilience engineering.
Operationalization of an ISO 31000-Compliant Resilience Engineering Method, Applied to the Temperature Control in a Smart Building, Luis LOPEZ from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Luis was born in Mexico City in 1984. He obtained his bachelor degree from the Western Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESO) in Guadalajara (Mexico) and completed his Master of Science ETH in Environmental Engineering at ETH Zürich (Switzerland). He specialized in life cycle assessments and renewable energy and has applied his knowledge in renowned industries. While at Feldschlösschen (the Swiss branch of Carlsberg) he proposed an environmental management strategy. He also consulted for the Research and Development department at Daimler. Having lived in Mexico, Canada, France, Chile, Germany and Switzerland Luis has strong intercultural competences, maintains a large international network and has gathered vast experience on North-South dynamics. In 2014 Luis joined the Risk Management and Technology Assessment group at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW) at the Institute of Sustainable Development (INE) where he has oriented his work into risk and resilience engineering.
ID: 380 / Session 12: 6
Topics: Critical Infrastructures
Keywords: System Identification, Aggressive environments, Wawelet Transformation
Evaluation of Different System Identification Methods for Assessment of RC Structures in Aggressive Environments
1International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Eeismology, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Eeismology, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 3University of Science and Culture, Iran, Islamic Republic of
Corrosion of RC structures in environmentally aggressive area of Persian Gulf, results in a considerable annual loss. It also has been shown that, the phenomenon increases the annual probable seismic loss and seismic risk of the important infrastructure in the region. Several management systems with a variety of tools such as destructive and nondestructive methods have been developed for observation of structural condition and enhance the performance of the facility during its life cycle. Therefore, application of innovative nondestructive methods for tracing the variation of structural and dynamic characteristics of such facility can enhance the different management systems. Among the methods different methods for health monitoring and identifying the dynamic characteristics of the structures are increasingly employed for similar purposes. In this study, peak-picking, Fourier spectrum, wavelet transformations and frequency domain decomposition(FDD), are studied investigate the capability of each method in identifying modal aspects, (e.g. natural periods, modal damping) of the structure. For this purpose, a numerical model of a bridge structure under chloride ion attack is developed in OpenSEEs software. Simulated response of the corroded structure ambient vibration is calculated under ambient vibration and the results of different mentioned methods are calculated. The results are also calculated using the numerical model and discussion are presented about the performance of each identification method. The results demonstrate the benefits and weak point for each method.
Evaluation of Different System Identification Methods for Assessment of RC Structures in Aggressive Environments, Afshin KALANTARI from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
ۤFull name: Benyamin Abbasi Feshki,Education: Master of Civil Engineering-Earhquake Engineering student,
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