Information System for Decision Support and Risk Management for Urban Planning of Settlement and Infrastructure [PB 51]
GEO-TOOLS, z.s., Czech Republic
The aim of the development is to create an information system for decision support and risk management in area of future urban solutions from point of view friendly settlements and other infrastructure. This system will evaluate (in a multidisciplinary and multi-criterial way) risk of future utilization of an area. Outputs of the system will be useful for decision-making of land usage and will apply to urban solution, urbanism and development studies. For effective assessment and risk modelling we used methods based on theory of complex systems or soft computing.
Project is supported by the Project No. TD03000037 of the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic.
Information System for Risk Analysis and Assessment of Groundwater Resources in Dependence on Human Activities and Climatic Changes [PB 52]
GEO-TOOLS, z.s., Czech Republic
Information system is developed and implemented as an expert system for analysis, assessment and risk modelling. The aim of development of information system are the analysis of existing and assessment of future dynamics of groundwater resources. The system consists of parts enabling acquisition, management and processing of the long-term monitoring data (treatment and display of raw data, data derivation, data visualization, trend analysis, time series and spatial distribution analysis) and methodology for use of the long-term monitoring data for assessment of existing groundwater resources and their future changes in given area, considering expected development of climate and land use. For effective assessment and risk modelling we used methods based on theory of Complex Dynamic Systems or Non-linear Dynamics.
Project is supported by the Project No. TA04020207 of the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic.
The Seismic Risk Mitigation Problems in Urban Areas of Central Asia [PB 53]
institute of seismic stability of structures, Uzbekistan
Nowadays the urbanization processes is intensive. It is lead to high density of population and increasing of vulnerability of social and economic infrastructures. More comprehensive vulnerability analysis has to base on the information about living area and quality of residential building there. Until now so approach are esoteric in many countries. Therefore all analysis built on information about living area and properties of residential buildings.
In this issue the systematization of residential buildings by dividing theirs on some groups are presented. The estimation of damaged residential buildings and casualty level as executed on the basis of map of seismic intensity in territory of city for scenario earthquakes.
Safe and Decentralised Solar Hydrogen Fuel Production and Storage for Residential Building and Mobility Applications [PB 54]
1Empa. Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science & Technology, Switzerland; 2University of Pretoria; 3University of Botswana; 4Empa. Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science & Technology, Switzerland
Large scale facilities pose a potential risk and threat because with one isolated attack large damage can be obtained, for example in a city, potentially with a large number of human casualties.
I present a solar energy harvesting strategy which allows to generate fuel for housing and mobility in a decentralised form. A city or a part of a city cannot be shut down from energy supply by a terrorist attack on this energy generation and storage infrastructure, because it is virtually fully decentralised and independent (no electric grid).
This system is based on photo-electrochemical cell technology and takes advantage of the solar energy arriving at small landscapes in local neighbourhoods in the range of few 100 sqm area per operation unit. The fuel is hydrogen, or hydrocarbons such as methane or methanol, when carbon dioxide greenhouse gas is included in the chemical process cycle. The necessary water for the process comes from the local sewage wastewater system.
The problem of energy storage in absence of sunshine during the day is also solved by this technology, because a storable fuel is produced. The pronounced safety feature of this approach is that many small units are built, which are impossible to demolish in a terror strike, as opposed to single large industrial complexes which are very attractive for terrorists to attack because of the high destructive "efficiency" by a single plot, but also by the commensurate public attention and "terror", literally, which comes with the attack on a landmark scale facility.
The negative part in this calculation comes from the loss of efficiency by moving from few large units to many small units. This is likely the price which society has to pay for the gain in safety from terrorism.
Proactive Management Strategies for Water Resource Planning to Cope with Climate Change in India [PB 55]
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India, India
India is not a dry land; rather, her landscape is decorated with 13 major, 28 medium and 52 minor rivers. Unfortunately, India is facing a water stress condition now and apprehends to go down to farther extreme as demand continues to grow rapidly with economic development. Irregular monsoon, a direct impact of climate change enhances uncertainty to Indian agricultural economy either by sudden over-rain or drought or shifting pattern of rainfall. As rainfall, the basic input to water resource is subjected to highly irregular, a successful water resource planning even for five years is challenging. This study identified the components of water resource planning, ascertained the components vulnerable to climate change, especially to erratic nature of monsoon and proposed some proactive risk management strategies with statistical verification.
Assessing Flood Risk for Urban Areas in the Lower Don River using GIS and Remote Sensing [PB 56]
Central European University, Hungary
Increasing urbanization rates and related colonization of traditionally unoccupied and potentially unsafe territories may result in great economic and human losses. In order to ensure resilience of growing and expanding communities, it is necessary to understand both existing risks and potential threats coming from natural and anthropogenic factors. The expansion of urban areas into the Lower Don River floodplain (Rostov Oblast, Russia) is a good example of such processes. Flood events were common for the region, and even after the construction of the Don Dam complex and significant regulation of the river discharge, the risk of inundation still exists. Historically, regular flooding was not considered as a disaster by local communities. However, ongoing floodplain urbanization changes the perception of floods and requires assessing its risks for settlements and economic activities.
Assessment of the flood risk was conducted for the region using remote sensing data and GIS. The aim was also to explore the scale and dynamics of floodplain urbanization. In order to evaluate the land cover changes and urbanization rates, Landsat satellite imagery was collected, processed and analyzed for two years 1985 (Landsat 5) and 2013 (Landsat 8). The obtained results have been compared to regional statistical data. Urban growth has been identified in the study area despite the decrease in the total population of the Rostov Oblast. Assessment of flooding risk for urban areas was carried out using the FLO-2D flood routing model (FLO-2D Software, Inc.) and verified using the records of the recent floods. Five flooding scenarios including natural 100-year flood were formulated and tested. The settlements potentially threatened were identified for each of these scenarios.
Disaster Risk Reduction in the Greater Chicago Area [PB 57]
Walden University, United States of America
The American Red Cross of Greater Chicago has partnered with local businesses and fire departments within its seven-county jurisdiction to increase community involvement in emergency response planning. The chapter has launched fire safety and disaster risk reduction outreach campaigns in communities that are disproportionately affected by disaster to influence the resilience and community involvement in disaster planning in those communities.
A mixed-methods study triangulating multiple data sources, including a survey, interviews, and direct observation during home safety visits, was conducted to determine whether the outreach campaign has an impact on the community involvement in emergency planning in targeted neighborhoods.
Data analysis revealed a number of reasons community members had not previously prepared for an emergency and found that the outreach program addressed most of these concerns and partnered with participants to help them become more resilient to disaster through preparation. Participants reported feeling better prepared for an emergency after learning preparedness techniques through the program. Additionally, calls for service from the American Red Cross have decreased in all of the communities the program has served. The largest change was a 37% decrease in calls for service over three years in one community.
The STREST Project: Harmonized Approach to Stress Tests for Critical Infrastructures Against Low-Probability High-Impact Natural Hazards [PB 58]
1European Commission, Joint Research Centre; 2Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; 3University of Ljubljana; 4Basler & Hofmann; 5ETH Zurich; 6AMRA; 7INGV; 8EPFL
Critical infrastructures are the backbone of modern society and provide many essential goods and services to urban areas, e.g. electrical power, telecommunications, water, etc. These infrastructures are highly integrated and often interdependent, but recent natural events have highlighted that such complex systems are highly vulnerable to natural hazards. They have also revealed the risk of cascading failures with potentially major and extended societal and economic consequences.
Given the risks associated with the impact of natural hazards on critical infrastructures, the move towards safer and more resilient cities requires the development and application of an improved risk assessment framework to address high-impact-low-probability events. In this context, the STREST project (2013-2016, www.strest-eu.org) developed a stress test framework to determine the vulnerability and resilience of non-nuclear critical infrastructures.
The project examines three types of infrastructures: (i) individual, single-site infrastructures with high risk and potential for high local impact and regional or global consequences, (ii) distributed and/or geographically-extended infrastructures with potentially high economic and environmental impact, and (iii) distributed, multiple-site infrastructures with low individual impact but large collective impact or dependencies.
In addition to the stress test framework addressing the vulnerability, resilience and interdependencies of critical infrastructures, STREST established a common and consistent taxonomy of non-nuclear critical infrastructures and developed a rigorous, consistent modelling approach to hazard, vulnerability, risk and resilience assessment of low-probability and high-consequence events, considering relevant epistemic uncertainties.
Lastly, STREST selected six key representative critical infrastructures in Europe for exploratory application of the stress test methodology. The goal of the applications is to validate and refine standardized approaches adequate for different classes of critical infrastructures, which could be applied to similar infrastructures in the future.
Disaster Management and Resilience in Electric Power Systems: The Case of Chile [PB 59]
1The University of Manchester, United Kingdom; 2The University of Manchester, United Kingdom
Chile is one of the countries located at the Ring of Fire. This belt concentrates subduction zones such as between the Nazca and South America Tectonic Plate, which is the reason for the intense seismic and volcanic activity in Chile. The strongest earthquake in the last years (Mw 8.8), took place the 27th February 2010. The earthquake triggered a tsunami which devastated several coastal towns in south-central Chile. The official death toll was 521, while the number of missing was 56. The Government declared 6 regions as zone of Catastrophes: Valparaiso, Metropolitana, Libertador, O’Higgins, Araucania, BioBio and Maule. It is estimated that the earthquake generated a power outage that affected the 93% of the country; therefore, the electricity and communications were initially interrupted, but later mostly restored. However, it took some days in the case of some locations. The telephone system was overwhelmed. Electricity infrastructure is key for the function of critical services (health, traffic control, water supply), which are necessary for undertaking the emergency response tasks after an earthquake and/or a tsunami. In normal times, the electricity infrastructure is necessary to sustain human and economic well-being since it supplies energy to industrial, commercial financial sectors, communication networks, and hence almost all activities in modern societies. There are four electricity supply systems in Chile: the Central Interconnected System, the Norte Grande Interconnected System, the Aysén and Magallanes. Nevertheless, the biggest system regarding installed capacity (75%) and population served (93%) is the Central Interconnected System, therefore the most important. In this project we want to support the implementation of community resilience due to power outages caused by earthquakes and tsunamis. To achieve this aim we plan to collect and analyze qualitative data to identify the needs of the affected population due to the power outage and its coping strategies.
Evaluation of Urban Resilience Against Communicational Outbreaks [PB 60]
1Kerman Medical University; 2Azad Islamic University of Kerman
Experience of severe communicational infectious diseases outbreaks has shown urban resilience threats by this phenomenon. The epidemics of infectious diseases like deadly natural disaster make cities inefficient and unstable. While cities have no predetermined functional and physical preparation against this acute shock. And there is no integrative management between these different sectors, health management and urban strategic plans. This paper tries to describe process of this diseases diffusion (considering the variables disease) in urban district by spatial analysis method (GIS and fuzzy logic). Results show functional and physical details of urban strategic plan effects on diffusion pattern in target district. This strategic plan is applied in two ways, the passive plan before the crisis and the active plan during the crisis by three principles: "Isolating strategy," "Adaptive strategy" and "Detachable strategy" in order to contain disease outbreaks.
The origin of respiratory communicational diseases is through close contact with people and airborne. Cities are prone to outbreaks of disease by putting people together in high density unless this gets back to some sort of control. Two dependent variables "contact frequency" and "social distance" have a direct impact on diffusion of pathogen. The greater "social distance" and lower the "frequency of contact" makes growth rate of disease diffusion decrease. Spatial analysis of the sample data and compare the current situation with the proposed plan proves by urbanism act in four sectors: "Functional & land," "Movement & access," "Public spaces" and "Physical & formal" that the zones of disease diffusion can be limited and controlled.
Studying the Effects of Contemporary Residential Buildings Facades due to Climate Architecture (Case Study; Warm and Dry Climate in Iran) [PB 61]
Islamic Azad University (Karaj Branch), Karaj, Iran, Iran, Islamic Republic of
A substantial portion of energy consumption by buildings is through its dissipation via the building facade. The present study aims at obtaining practical solutions for designing facades in warm and dry climate in Iran through emphasis on energy saving, which is one of the three main categories associated with designing in sustainable architecture. To do so, related literature and studies in this climate in this regard are reviewed. In order to improve and adapt the proposed strategies to the available technologies and climatic conditions, these two variables are studied more exclusively. It is inevitable interaction between climate and architecture. Architectural designs regardless of the climatic characteristics of the regional climate will be imperfect and costly. The creation of urban spaces, residential areas and buildings all need to pay attention to climate and climate studies.
Urban buildings and their symbols are the most influential factors in an urban landscape. Since the climate in each area is one of the most important factors affecting the design views.
This article has been tried to emphasize the effects of facades in residential buildings due to climate architecture by investigation design patterns in warm and dry climate in Iran. Be recognized the importance and also how these patterns to are addressed, especially in view of the residential building
Coastal Risk Collaboration Governance and Communication: Integration of Stakeholder Risk Information, Training, Participation and Behavior [PB 62]
1University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia; 2Ventspils municipality, Latvia
The study analyzed coastal (esp. flood) risk governance and particularly the all stakeholders communication process and content in the coastal rural and town municipalities of Latvia - Salacgrīva, Saulkrasti, Ventspils and Liepaja. There were performed structured in-depth interviews and additionally also two questionnaire surveys done (Salacgriva, Ventspils) as well as expert interviews conducted. Results from coastal case studies are suggesting the whole scope of governance and communication enhancement recommendations to be complementary developed for coastal risk governance (CRG), even most of them are separately widely known theoretically and/or by international practice and some also step-wise applied by Latvian environmental governance practice as well.
CRG in Latvian municipalities has to be identified/assessed and managed not only as an traditionally technical-environmental problem, but also as socio-economic and culture tradition oriented problem field that all and complementary affects local communities and territory. CRG cross-level (vertical) and cross-sectorial (horizontal) integration is to be implemented in both the all mandatory municipal planning documents and esp. in the process of preparing, making and carrying out CRG decisions of the whole governance cycle. In the latter there also shall be integrated not only CRG situation assessment, but also mostly not known yet municipal monitoring (incl. public based/citizen science) and eventual CRG indicator systems.
The complementary use of all types of CRG instruments is to be effectively applied - political and legal, planning, economic and financial, institutional/administrative, infrastructure and communication instruments. The main success preconditon still remains as pro-active collaboration between the all main stakeholders groups involved in the CRG process is to be taking place and especially mandatory using of all collaboration communication complementary set of instruments – information and education/training, participation and related everyday/risk behavior - to ensure that any particular step/sector/level does not become a weak link in the necessary chain of CRG.
Mentioned set of recomendations correspond to the collaboration governance model/approach designed earlier during research-and-development projects studying local coastal/environmental governance in Latvia. The research results could be possibly used also for other/different municipalities and at the national level, but all four complementary components/instruments of coastal risk collaboration communication model might be eventually applied for any other type of risk communication developments, particularly at the local scale.
Risk Factors And Analysis Of Geotechnical Situation Under Construction Of Underground Communications In Tashkent [PB 63]
Tashkent Automobile and Road Institute, Uzbekistan
For the last 15 years in Tashkent increased significantly the volume of construction of new urban infrastructure objects. Constantly increasing loading and environmental degradation require more and more active use of underground space, including for placement of transport and engineering systems, objects of trade and public services, warehouses and car parks. In this connection, the arrangement of underground structures in dense urban areas puts forward a number of requirements that must be considered during planning, designing and construction of buildings, as built and operated underground structures are zones of high risk and, in the event of an accident, a serious hazard to people therein. During the construction of the underground object in the deformation is involved massif of surrounding soil, the size of which increases with underground deepening. Existing neighboring buildings are often get damaged. Analysis of the survey results of renovation projects and new construction in Tashkent, in the greatest number of cases (nearly 60%) were caused by influence of temporary technological actions. The paper presents the concept of the whole set of factors generated by new construction in the conditions of city development: not only factors associated with changes in static conditions of foundation work (change of soil properties by the presence of new construction, unloading at the arrangements of digging, etc.), but also the risk factors arising from the technology of construction works.
Seismic risk reduction from natural disaster (Earthquakes) for the territory of Kosovo
Ministry of Economic Development, Kosovo
The aim of this study is to assess seismic risk for Kosovo, restricted to the expected losses of damage to residential buildings.
The territory of Kosovo is situated in the Alpine-Mediterranean seismic belt. This belt comprises the wider zone of contact between the lithosphere plates of Africa and Eurasia, from the Azores Islands up to the eastern border of the Mediterranean basin. The geological contents and morphological characteristics of the Kosovo territory are very complex with a lot of morphological contracts, many mountains with a height of over 2.500 meters and large depressions.Combined with the fact that some of the earthquake prone areas are densely populated and highly industrialized and where therefore the hazard coincides with high concentration of exposed assets, the damaging implications from earthquakes must be taken seriously.