IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA

The programme includes the IDRC Davos 2016 agenda of sessions, plenary sessions, special panels and workshops. Click on the session title for more details.

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IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA


Session
Poster 4: Integrative Disaster Risk Management: From Forecasting to Restoration Strategies
Time:
Tuesday, 30/Aug/2016:
12:30pm - 1:30pm


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Presentations

Vitamins in Agricultural Catastrophes [PB 36]

Michael GRISWOLD1, David Charles DENKENBERGER1,2, Mohamed ABDELKHALIQ1, Deborah COLE1, Joshua PEARCE3, Andy Ray TAYLOR4

1Tennessee State University, United States of America; 2Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, United States of America; 3Michigan Technological University, United States of America; 4Nonviolent Communication, United Kingdom

A number of catastrophes could block the sun, including asteroid/comet impact, super volcanic eruption, and nuclear war with the burning of cities (nuclear winter). Previous work has analysed alternate food supplies (e.g. mushrooms growing on dead trees, bacteria growing on natural gas). This was shown to be technically capable of feeding everyone with macronutrients (protein, carbohydrates, and lipids) and for minerals (though economics and politics remain uncertain). The present work analyses vitamins. The vitamin content of various alternate foods is compared to the U.S. recommended daily allowance and found to be adequate in the right proportions. The results show the intake of all of these vitamins is below the toxic limit. Backup plans discussed include chemical synthesis of vitamins, plants grown with artificial light and growing bacteria rich in certain vitamins.


Feeding Everyone if Industry is Disabled [PB 37]

Deborah COLE1, David Charles DENKENBERGER1,2, Michael GRISWOLD1, Mohamed ABDELKHALIQ1, Joshua PEARCE3

1Tennessee State University, United States of America; 2Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, United States of America; 3Michigan Technological University, United States of America

A number of risks could cause widespread electrical failure, including a series of high-altitude electromagnetic pulses (HEMPs) caused by nuclear weapons, an extreme solar storm, and a coordinated cyber attack. Since modern industry depends on electricity, it is likely there would be a collapse of the functioning of industry and machines in these scenarios. As our current high agricultural productivity depends on industry (e.g. for fertilizers) it has been assumed that there would be mass starvation in these scenarios. We model the loss in current agricultural output due to losing industry. Then we analyze compensating strategies such as reducing edible food fed to animals and turned into biofuels, reducing food waste, burning wood in landfills for energy, phosphorus, and potassium, and planting a high fraction of legumes to fix nitrogen. We find that these techniques could feed everyone, and extracting calories from agricultural residues, fishing with wind-powered ships and expanding planted area could feed everyone several times over.


Providing Non-food needs if Industry is Disabled [PB 38]

Mohamed ABDELKHALIQ1, David Charles DENKENBERGER1,2, Michael GRISWOLD1, Deborah COLE1, Joshua PEARCE3

1Tennessee State University, United States of America; 2Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, United States of America; 3Michigan Technological University, United States of America

A number of risks could cause global electrical failure, including a series of high-altitude electromagnetic pulses (HEMPs) caused by nuclear weapons, an extreme solar storm, and a coordinated computer virus attack. Since modern industry depends on electricity, it is likely that much industry and machines would grind to a halt. The most challenging need to be met in these scenarios is likely to be food, and this is analyzed elsewhere in this conference. However, without industry, food cannot easily be shipped around the world, so one method to maintain the human population without electricity in an emergency is relocating people to the food sources. We find that this is possible even in the worst-case scenario by retrofitting ships to be wind powered. We also discuss solutions for non-industry inland transportation, water supply and treatment, and heating of buildings. We find that the nonfood needs could be met for nearly everyone in the short and medium term.


A Study on Infectious Disease Control System in Korea [PB 40]

MinKyung CHO, HongSic YUN, JeongHwan KWON, JaeJoon LEE

SungKyunKwan University, Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

In a cosmopolitan age, it is inevitable that many tourists and business people visit various countries. It promotes worldwide economic growth and cultural exchanges. However, it also has brought side effects which are frequent terrorist attacks and the outbreak of the pandemic diseases. For instance, a Korean was infected with the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. Actually, the MERS is a viral respiratory syndrome that was frequently reported in the Middle Eastern nations such as Saudi Arabia. The pandemic disease caused many deaths in Korea which is located in the eastern of Asia. The damages were a fall of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, negative consumer sentiment, domestic stagnation and social unrest atmosphere. Before the MERS was reported in Korea, the SARS and the Novel swine-origin influenza A(H1N1) were prevalent and it sent shock through the Korean society. It means that Korea is not a clean country from infectious diseases. As a result, we need to study to manage infectious disease. When the infectious diseases are prevalent, wrong awareness, prevention education and belated responses made various economic and social damages. So a government, businesses and private sectors have taken an active interest in pandemic diseases management Especially, the government has more interest in the management system because the infectious disease management capacity is a kind of national capacity and status. In this study, we studied Korean infectious disease control system and found out the weakness. Finally, we tried to make up for the weak points in the current infectious disease control system in Korea and then suggest a complementary control system.


The Essence - Distributing Information can Save a Life [PB 41]

Oday SAMAD

individual, Kuwait

It is important to provide updated preemptive Information in different forms in certain essential products. Writing information in certain essential products can help people to know when, what to do in difficult situations. We find these products are missing and hard to find when natural hazards happen such as earthquake, volcanoes, flooding and tsunami. When goods are readily available to us we tend to not maximize on the efficiency of their use.

I believe using certain products to send a message can save a life. Maybe you will be asking what will be the product. And why many people will see these guidelines? The answer is: “water bottles”

Video : https://youtu.be/3LS5z2DPVBo


Emerging New Technologies for Forecast Warnings of Large Earthquake Events: The Complexity of the New Challenges [PB 42]

Garry DE LA POMERAI, Dimitar OUZOUNOV

SOLUZION, Dubai. U.A.E.

Highlighting recent catastrophic earthquakes which claimed thousands of lives and caused extensive economic losses in the affected regions, we shall demonstrate that the DRR and NDM Agencies are struggling to understand how to provide reliable advanced warning of seismic events. Our presentation emphasizes that single scientific disciplines in isolation can't solve this complex issue alone.

Today, after years of research and development, we are now witnessing the emergence of the necessary inter-disciplinary approach based on multi-parameter data fusion, which critically enable algorithms to reliably forecast major seismic events. While still in the early stages of building comprehensive algorithms, we discuss that it is now a reality and we can already provide reliable short-term advanced warning. The significance of advanced multi-disciplined sensor response signatures to create short-term alerts will be presented within the framework of major earthquake activities in 2012-15.

The new observation capabilities in monitoring from ground and geo-space, coupled with advances in data analysis, algorithm development and theory, provide opportunities as well as additional challenges.

The presentation will also spotlight the biggest of these challenges including: identifying a social science strategy to educate the users of the reliable forecast information; integrating real time early warning alarm systems; focusing preparedness training at all levels of society from Administrations to industry and the home, will also be an essential goal of the strategy in order to maximize the potential usefulness of the developing reliable forecast technology as the 'New Early Warning'.


Threats on the Horizon [PB 44]

Patrick ALCANTARA

The Business Continuity Institute, United Kingdom

The Business Continuity Institute conducts its annual Horizon Scan in order to establish which threats business continuity professionals are most concerned about. The research involves a survey of business continuity professionals and an in-depth analysis of the results.

The first part of the survey established what the immediate threats are. These may not be the threats that are most likely, or the threats that have the biggest impact, concern could come down to a number of factors such as lack of preparedness. The results showed that it was yet again IT related threats that came top with cyber attack number one, data breach second and IT/telecoms outage thirds. This shows how reliant we are on our IT systems and major problems can occur when those systems are disrupted.

The survey then established what the longer term threats are that organizations need to watch out for. It was yet again IT related threats that featured high with the use of the internet for malicious attacks at number one. The potential for cyber attacks is not just a threat now, but is likely to remain so in the future, meaning that organizations must invest more heavily in combatting these threats. Potential damage to reputation is also a concern with the influence of social media at number two, while loss of key employee came in at third.

Finally the survey established how organizations are preparing to meet these threats by asking whether budgets were increasing or decreasing. Despite the survey showing an increasing level of concern for all but four of the 29 threats listed, one in ten organizations were still having their budgets cut, leaving them less prepared to manage through any disruption that may occur.


Forest Fire Management: A Missing Agenda Needs a Swift Action for the Disaster Management in Nepal (Discussion for policy transfer) [PB 45]

Pashupati Nath KOIRALA, Bhuban TIMALSINA

Ministry of Forests and Soil Conservation, Nepal

The forest fire is regarded a key driver of deforestation in Nepal. To address this issue, the forest fire management activities have been implementing with nominal allocation of the budget below a per cent annually. Out of 25,000 community groups, about 250 groups have been implementing forest management activities on awareness camp, training of firefighting basic tools and prevention activities: forest path maintenance, control firing on grass field. The National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management of Nepal, 2008 has poorly stated for the forest fire management issue. This paper tries to analyze coherent linkages between the forest fire management strategy, 2009 and forest policy, 2014 to the past five years' programme and progress in the forest fire management. The remaining communities are dependent to follow the traditional methods. Therefore, the study analyzed policy arrangements through other sub-sectoral working policies and strategies. This shows the policy transfer process is in reverse system for the forest fire management. The forest act was enacted in 1993 followed by the forest fire strategy, 2009 and finally a few policy options included in the recent forest policy, 2014. The reverse evolution of the policy development in the forest fire management has not made the forestry field towards the appropriate direction to a regular routine professional management activities adapting in the forest fire management to administer the forest land (44.74 per cent of the land in the country). Meantime, the recent a strong earthquake has triggered to think more in natural disaster management through strategic and a concrete plan. The study recommends stimulating swift action to develop the forest fire management mainstreaming plan for all over the country as a major disaster risk reduction in the forestry theme in the future with no missing agenda.


Application of Numerical Weather Prediction and Data Assimilation in Meteorological Disaster Risk Management in Tehran: Dust Storm [PB 46]

Abolfazl NEYESTANI1, Bibielham FAKHRI BAFGHI2, Shima ROSTAMI JALILIAN3

1Institude of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 3Department of Geography, University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of

Extreme weather phenomenon such as flood, thunderstorm, hurricane and etc. causes enormous casualties and property damage in different countries around the world. To provide precaution notice and reduce losses, the design of early warning system is an effective procedure to identify high risk area and disaster scenarios and scales. In management of weather disasters and implementation of early warning system, numerical weather prediction models are very effective to forecast future weather conditions. These models can simulate the weather in different time and space scales on global and regional scales, but they have uncertainty because of inaccurate initial atmospheric condition in the model. An important component for reconstruction of initial condition in numerical weather prediction is data assimilation. Data assimilation is the application of advanced mathematical methods to combine current meteorological observation and past data in an explicit dynamical model to provide time continuity and dynamic coupling with the meteorological fields. Therefore data assimilation can help reduce bias and uncertainty in weather prediction. That is very important in design of early warning system for flood, storm and other meteorological disasters. In this study, we use a regional weather prediction model, data assimilation method and different kind of conventional and satellite observation to forecast a disaster dust storm that took place in Tehran on June 2, 2014. This massive dust storm did not forecast well by Iranian Meteorological Organization. Simulation of this weather phenomena demonstrated that using data assimilation have positive impact in forecasting severe winds in urban area and therefore should use in implementation of early weather warning system.


ZIKA Virus Outbreak, An International Concern [PB 47]

Angeli Santamaria MEDINA

New York Harbor Healthcare System, United States of America

In 2015, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) issued an alert when a significant increase of reported microcephaly occurred with the spread of Zika virus in Brazil. Many countries in Central and South America, Caribbean, U.S. Territories (American Samoa, Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands) reported an active transmission of the virus in travelers. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) confirmed the link between Zika virus infection in pregnant women and microcephaly of the fetus. In February 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of Zika virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. With 1,616 confirmed cases of microcephaly in Brazil and 496 travel related cases in the U.S., it is apparent how vulnerable we are to emerging infectious diseases in this world.

Thousands of athletes and visitors from around the world will come to Brazil during the Summer Olympic Games. These people will be at risk of getting bitten by infected Aedes species mosquito causing Zika virus. When these infected travelers go back to their own countries, they will risk infecting others and further spread the Zika virus. Amidst concerns about possible implication to travelers, the WHO announced there is a "very low risk of Zika spread at Olympics" and reaffirmed that "only pregnant women should skip the Olympic Games in Rio."

This presentation will provide an overview of Zika virus, its transmission, (sexually and from mother to her fetus, mosquito to human, human to mosquito), and implication for pregnant women or women considering pregnancy who are traveling in endemic areas. This poster will present a risk analysis of the Zika virus, and the phases of emergency management, e.g. Zika virus prevention/ mitigation, preparedness, risk communication, response and recovery.


Consolidation of Disaster Data on Construction Works and Buildings in Belo Horizonte City – Brazil (2009-2015) [PB 48]

Helen Barreto LARA1, Rogério Cabral de AZEVEDO1, Alexandre Lucas ALVES2, Deyvid Wavel Barreto ROSA3, Marcos Fábio Guimarães ALVES1

1CENTRO FEDERAL DE EDUCAÇÃO TECNOLÓGICA DE MINAS GERAIS, Brazil; 2COORDENADORIA MUNICIPAL DE DEFESA CIVIL DE BELO HORIZONTE, Brazil; 3UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS, Brazil

Brazil has registered many natural and technical disasters. Significant human, material, social and environmental damages are found both in national proportion disaster events and in small and local ones. In this context, one of the important disaster scenarios are the construction works. The main goal of this contribution is to present, unprecedentedly, the consolidation of disaster data registered since 2009 at Belo Horizonte by the Civil Defense Municipal System (SIMDEC), used by the Municipal Civil Defense Office (COMDEC), a public agency of the City Hall and winner of the Sasakawa Awards 2013. The methodology used for data treatment follows the one created by the National Center of Risk and Disaster Management, published in the Natural Disaster Yearbook 2013, with adjustments to the local reality and focus on technical disasters. To reduce disaster risks in both national and local scales is one of the advice of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. The data pointed a large share of technical disasters and risks, civil engineering related ones responding for almost 90% of these occurrences. Results revealed that this kind of event occurs almost every day and can range from simple infiltrations or cracks to huge collapses, like the Batalha dos Guararapes viaduct crash, during the 2014 FIFA World Cup, with two deaths. Furthermore, disaster risk maps were drawn and showed that almost 20% of the disasters happens in suburban villages and slums, which accounts only for 5% of the municipal territory and 15% of the city population. They also revealed that occurrences are more frequent in middle-class areas, where construction works are often supervised by engineers, which indicates that risks are not being taken into account fully by them. Thus, engineer’s role is identified as fundamental to disaster risk reduction.


Risk Determination of Technological Dısasters: Industrial Accidents, Transportation of Hazardous Chemicals and Critical Infrastructures [PB 49]

Betül KURADA, Saliha ÇETİNYOKUŞ, Mehmet Fatih ŞEN, Osman GÜLEŞEN

Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), Turkey

Technological (man-made) disasters are described as disasters or emergency situations like; industrial, mining, nuclear, radiological, transportation accidents, massive fires, biological events, threats to critical infrastructure, cyber threats, and environmental threats that results in loss of life, disorders, social, economic, and environmental deteriorations that occurs as a result of human activities and triggering of natural disasters.

Risk identification and assessment studies have been continued about subjects on industrial accidents, hazardous materials transportation accidents and critical infrastructure of technological disasters. Creation of physical threat zone map for industrial accidents (explosions, fires, toxic emissions) studies have been conducted. Modeling studies have been performed to the upper-level and lower-level establishments according to Seveso Directive. High-level establishments (around 900 establishments, and of which 2500 plants) modeling studies have been carried out through the EFFECTS (TNO) software. "Hazards and Risk Identification Guide for Industrial Accidents " has been prepared for modelling of lower-level establishments, and studies are planned to be done with the methodology located in this guide. Lethal threat contours and image showing the mortality rate of these contours belong to explosion (BLEVE, UVCE), fire (jet fire, pool fire) and toxic emissions have been in threat zone maps,

One of our important projects is ‘‘Preparation of Risk Maps for the Carriage of Hazardous Chemicals by Road: A Pilot Project Implementation.’’ By this project, development of a suitable risk methodology for our country, preparation of risk maps and a decision support system that has an interactive query ability will be carried out. Pilot implementation of the project covers Aegean region of Turkey (Izmir, Manisa, Aydın, Muğla, Denizli, Uşak, Kütahya, Afyon Provinces).

Turkey’s critical infrastructures such as electricity, natural gas, oil, solid fuel, health, critical public services, maritime, railways, airlines, highways, water management-dams, communication, finance, food-agriculture, culture-tourism and critical production-commercial facilities that due to the physical(terrorism, sabotage, etc.), environmental (earthquakes, landslides, floods, etc.) and cyber security risks and thus determination of disaster and emergency that may arise and loss of life, property and that occur as the state is aimed at reducing the works needs to be done. In this context it infrastructures, assets and facilities were made determinated. Risk identification and assessment will be done for three types of technological disaster with all of these studies.



 
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