IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA

The programme includes the IDRC Davos 2016 agenda of sessions, plenary sessions, special panels and workshops. Click on the session title for more details.

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IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA


Session
Poster 1: Natural and Man-Made Disasters: Potential Impacts, Analyses and Damage Assessments
Time:
Monday, 29/Aug/2016:
12:30pm - 1:30pm


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Presentations

Relocation of Towns due to Landslides and Torrential Flows Hazards in Boyacá, Colombia [PB 01]

Héctor FONSECA, Jenny Andrea CEBALLOS

UNIVERSIDAD PEDAGOGICA Y TECNOLOGICA DE COLOMBIA, UPTC, Colombia

The objective of this paper is to show the results of investigation of the geomorphological processes that have constituted threat of mudflows and landslides, these events are considered disastrous, they have affected towns of the department of Boyacá in the country of Colombia, to the point that some of towns were relocated in the past century. Other towns have been affected by disastrous events historically, their locations are vulnerable to the threats, with difficulty for reduce the risk. Although these towns have no other alternative than territory use planning, with a high chance of relocation of populated centers, they did not have received the appropriate attention from the risk management authorities.

This evaluation is part of a geomorphological research project applied to modeling the territory of Boyacá, region located to the northeast of Colombia in South America. In the geomorphological research, it has prioritized inventory of landslides for the development of a morphodynamic map at scale 1:25,000. Similarly, there has been the historiography of events that have affected towns of the department of Boyacá during the twentieth century to the present.

Some research results indicate that the first overall relocation of a village in Boyacá dating back 1724, for the populated center of Chita, because a torrential flows during a rainy period. However, the greatest impacts produced by the processes triggered by rainfall, corresponds to the period between the years 1933-1938, which influenced strongly the northeastern area of department of Boyacá, causing landslides and torrential flows that led to the destruction of at least five towns three of whom were relocated (Paz de Río, Sativanorte, Sativasur).

Finally, the results of this research, it is pretend to know the territory, understanding that geomorphological processes may constitute threat; when communities are established in the course of these processes, it increases vulnerabilities


Drought-flood Variation in Arid Northwestern China during the past 539 Years [PB 02]

Jinhong WAN

China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, China, People's Republic of

Drought-flood variation is sensitive to both climate change and human activities, and therefore serves as an excellent indicator to assess regional development and disaster prevention. Using a large of volume of various datasets, include local records and tree ring width series, we extracted 19 sites' drought-flood grades series , from 1470 AD to 2008 AD, in the Arid Northwestern China (ANC), and reconstruct the Regional Comprehensive Drought-flood Index (RCDI) series in ANC and relevant provinces. The RCDI series shows that the drought is a major hazard during the past 539 years. It is also found that the drought strike more frequently in the western and high altitude areas than the eastern and low altitude areas of ANC. The paper analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of the RCDI series by Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method. The results show that the variations of drought-flood in ANC have seven periodic fluctuations which are 2.5a, 7.5a, 13.1a, 25.7a, 77.0a, and 134.8a, respectively. The results also show that the trend of the regional drought severity decreased in the last 539 years.


Analysis of the Flood Disaster Characteristics and Disaster Mechanism Caused by super Typhoon Rammasun in 2014 [PB 03]

Jinhong WAN, Xuming TAN

China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, China, People's Republic of

Typhoon is a serious destructive weather event, and the damage caused by typhoon is serious. Understanding characteristics of typhoon disasters, disaster mechanism, and social response have an important significance for disaster prevention and mitigation. Through investigation of typhoon disaster in Hainan province caused by super typhoon Rammasun, we found that the disaster lead to a big number of affected population and serious casualties; agriculture affected area and inundated area accounted for a larger share of the planting area. Disaster loss is serious, and agriculture loss accounted for a larger share. Further research shows that the building design standard, the infrastructure management, the ability of professional disaster management, the community residents' disaster risk perception, the social disaster prevention and reduction system, the disaster prevention plan and regulations system should be responsible for the disaster loss. At last, this paper recommends that mitigation super typhoon disaster need do many detail works including structural disaster mitigation strategies (Infrastructure construction) and the non-structural disaster mitigation strategies (plan or regulations system, social participation).


The Distribution of Flood Disaster Loss in China during 1950-2013 [PB 04]

Jinhong WAN, Jiangang LIU, Jun DENG, Yunpeng LI

China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, China, People's Republic of

It has important practical significance to study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of flood disaster for effective flood control and disaster reduction. Through analyzing the historical disaster loss data, the result show that the crops affected area and economic loss showed a rising trend, the death tolls of population showed a trend of decline during 1950-2013 in provincial level. In the space scale, the disaster loss shows the East China more than West China, and South China bigger than North China. Meanwhile, the flood disaster severity shows a decreasing trend during 1990-2013. And at provincial level, the annual disaster severity of the southern provinces of China is higher than the north area, but in recent years, showing a trend of South China decreasing and North China increasing.


Social Determinants of Mid- to Long-term Disaster Impacts on Health: A Systematic Review [PB 05]

Shuhei NOMURA1, Alexander J.Q. PARSONS2, Mayo HIRABAYASHI2, Ryo KINOSHITA2, Yi LIAO2, Susan HODGSON3

1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom; 2Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Japan; 3MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom

Disasters cause a wide range of health impacts. Although there remains a need to understand and improve acute disaster management, a stronger understanding of how health is affected in the medium and longer term is also required to inform the design and delivery of measures to manage post-disaster health risks, and to guide actions taken before and during events which will also lead to reduction in health impact. Social determinants exert a powerful influence on different elements of risk, principally vulnerability, exposure and capacity, and thus, on people’s health.As disaster health data and research has tended to focus on the short-term health impacts, no systematic assessment of the social determinants of the mid- to long-term health impacts of disasters has been identified. We assessed the chronic health impacts of disasters and explored the potential socioeconomic determinants of health impact through a systematic review. Our findings, based on 28 studies, highlighted that regardless of health outcomes and event types, the influence of disasters on chronic heath persists beyond the initial disaster period, affecting people’s health for months to years. Using the World Health Organization's conceptual framework for the social determinants of health, we identified a total of 35 themes across the three conceptual domains (determinants related to the socioeconomic and political context, structural determinants, and intermediate determinants) as potentially influencing disaster impact. Investment to tackle modifiable underlying determinants could aid disaster risk management, improve medium and long-term health outcomes from disasters, and build community resilience.


A Disaster Complexity Tale: The South Pacific Origins of the Blizzard of 2016 [PB 06]

James Michael SHULTZ

University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, United States of America

The Blizzard of 2016, produced blizzard conditions and heavy snowfall throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States during January 22–24, 2016. This Category 4 (“crippling”) nor’easter created significant human impact due to its passage over densely-populated coastal “megalopolises” extending from Washington D.C. to Boston. With snow depths exceeding 3 feet in some areas, the blizzard covered an estimated 434 thousand square miles and impacted more than 100 million people.

A multi-disciplinary team was assembled to review this storm from a complexity sciences vantage. The blizzard was distinguished by its dynamic, “globally-networked” risk landscape, a hallmark of complexity. Investigators explored how factors related to climate change, including record-setting global temperatures and a powerful El Niño, ultimately contributed to the formation of the season’s strongest winter storm.

The Blizzard of 2016 was a natural hydro-meteorological disaster; combining elements of winter storm, nor’easter, blizzard, and coastal flood; that disrupted transportation and infrastructure for millions. The antecedent climate events that led to the blizzard included an explosive, thunderstorm-generating interaction between the east-to-west migrating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), emerging from the Indian Ocean, as it encountered the peak ocean temperatures associated with an extremely strong 2015/2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This took place in the tropical Pacific Ocean, just north of American Samoa, in the vicinity of the equator where it intersects with the International Date Line. This destabilizing MJO-ENSO coaction affected the jet stream and set in motion a cascade of atmospheric effects that ultimately influenced the development of a powerful blizzard that occurred several weeks later and 7,000 miles (11,000 km) away From a disaster complexity point of view, the Blizzard of 2016 reveals the intricate interconnections among weather systems worldwide and illustrates how natural and anthropogenic (e.g. climate change) phenomena interact to produce far-ranging consequences.


A Complex Systems Analysis of the Lac-Mégantic Runaway Train Derailment [PB 07]

James Michael SHULTZ

University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, United States of America

On July 6, 2013, an unmanned runaway freight train with 5 locomotives and 72 oil tank cars descended 11 km on a downhill grade, accelerating to 101 km/h as it entered the town of Lac-Mégantic, Quebec, Canada. Encountering a sharp curve, 63 tank cars derailed, ruptured, deformed, exploded, and burned in a 2-day conflagration. Dozens of buildings were razed, 2,000 persons were displaced, and 47 citizens were killed in the raging fires. Hazardous materials contamination affected air and water quality and created an ecological catastrophe. The public health, medical, and psychological consequences, as well as community strengths and indicators of resilience were actively monitored.

A complex systems analysis of the derailment was conducted drawing upon multidisciplinary expertise in the areas of train crash engineering, public health, medical crash trauma, mental health and psychosocial support, disaster health, and complexity sciences. A synthesis of key components of the event was developed by blending direct on-scene response experience with in-depth review of investigative reports, news stories, and websites of agencies involved in disaster response and railway safety. A complexity sciences “lens” was applied to the analysis to connect the causal sequence to the public health and environmental consequences.

For this non-intentional, human-generated (anthropogenic), technological/transportation disaster, distinguishing features included a complex web of causation revealing failures of governance and management on the part of Transport Canada and the MMA Railway, unrepaired mechanical defects, a compounding sequence of human errors, and flagrantly dangerous train securement, leading to a preventable runaway derailment with loss of life and property, and massive ecological harm. Data will be presented from ongoing studies of the environmental, behavioral, and psychological impacts, and community resilience. Preliminary findings indicate that two-thirds of the Lac-Mégantic area population sustained human and/or material losses.


The Impact of Earthquakes on Water Works Objects and its Safety Problems [PB 08]

Rustam Abdullaevich ABIROV, Mashrap AKHMEDOV

institute of seismic stability of structures, Uzbekistan

The irrigational structure, many systems of power and municipal infrastructure are connected with design of various dams and dykes. The major problem becomes increase of their stability, reliability and safety at operating as even their partial destruction can have catastrophic consequences.

After series of tectonic earthquakes at long period the damages are accumulated into body of structures. Moreover it is established, that besides earthquakes as result of natural seismotectonic processes, it is necessary to consider also anthropogenic factors – man-made earthquakes.

The next problems at providing of estimation and mitigation of probable disaster are raised:

• The seismic hazard assessment and safety analysis

• The stability of social and economic factors

Therefore it is necessary to take attention of safety analysis at all life cycle of object. The carrying out of an estimation of technical condition for hydro technical structures and corresponding actions on liquidation of damages in dams enables to prevent a possible destruction of water works objects. In this issue the analyzed damages of Uzbekistan dams as up to event, and damages of dams after impact of strong earthquakes; classified and generalized the damages by types of designs and the volume of dams. For identification of accumulation of damages non-destructive control method – acoustical emission are used. The vulnerability assessment and seismic risk mitigation measures are proposed in proposed work.


The Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Tropical Cyclone Track Landfall in Oman [PB 09]

Suad Saud AL MANJI, Pro Jon LOVETT, Dr Gordon MITCHELL

university of leeds, United Kingdom

Tropical cyclones (TC) are common natural disaster that cause considerable impacts on Oman. Overall 41 tropical cyclone systems made landfall in Oman during the period 1881-2014. They are associated with extreme winds, storm surges and major flash floods that have caused loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure. Tropical cyclones affect the coastal area from Muscat in northern Oman to Salalah in the south. Identification of high risk areas has received considerable attention from the institutions in Oman. The focus of this study is understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone landfall in Oman to identify the high risk areas.

Two statistical methods are used to understand the spatiotemporal distribution of the tracks. Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) is used to calculate the density distribution of the cyclones by season and months. While Linear Directional Mean (LDM) used to identify the linear trend of the tracks (i.e. the mean angular direction of the storm).

This study found that in the pre-monsoon, cyclones generally tend to originate in the south of the region during May and move northward in June. In the post monsoon, cyclones tend to originate in the north during September, moving progressively southward in October and November. These results reveal a series of general and broadly predictable spatiotemporal patterns, though individual events may deviate from these trends.


The Policies of Seismic Risk Management: Case of the Protected Areas of Dellys and Tenes Cities, Algeria [PB 10]

Farida SEHILI

Ferhat Abbas University, Algeria

The greater part of urban heritage, especially of the medium and small Algerian cities, is subject to a major seismic risk. The probability of a happening earthquake is strong, and the territories vulnerability is great.

Legislative procedures are implemented to support urban heritage and managing natural disasters. In fact, the Permanent Plan of Safeguard and Enhancement of Saved Sectors (PPSMVSS) as an instrument of protection, preservation and enhancement of this heritage, in its content, does not guide decision makers on how to manage the vulnerability of preserved areas from the earthquake.

After the disaster of the earthquake that hit the Algerian Centre (wilayah of Boumerdes) in 2003. A legislative framework was created while other texts have been adapted. Emergency measures operations are launched to preserve the under-threat monuments and protected areas.

Saved sectors of Dellys, in the wilaya of Boumerdes and Ténès in the wilayah of Chlef are at all times subject to seismic risk.

This article presents a comparative study of two PPSMVSS Dellys and Ténès and the management of the vulnerability of their two safeguarded areas. As a first result of this study the setting up of indicators to be taken into account in the development of plans for the protection and management of conservation areas.


Climate Change Effects on Precipitation Extremes in Central Europe [PB 11]

Jan KYSELY, Zuzana RULFOVA, Romana BERANOVA, Ladislav GAAL

Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, Czech Republic

Precipitation extremes are associated with large negative effects on environment and human society due to floods, landslides, and other hazards. There is also growing evidence that the hydrological cycle, including heavy precipitation, is affected by climate change. Many studies have dealt with evaluation of precipitation extremes in regional climate models (RCMs) and their projected changes for the 21st century, but relatively little attention has been given to differences between scenarios for i) sub-daily and multi-day precipitation extremes, and (ii) convective (sub-grid) and stratiform (large-scale) precipitation. While extreme convective (sub-daily) events are associated with flash floods, heavy stratiform (often multi-day) precipitation may trigger regional floods affecting large areas. We analyse projected changes of precipitation characteristics and extremes in Central Europe for the late 21st century (2071–2100) in ensembles of RCM simulations from ENSEMBLES and EURO-CORDEX projects. We find increases in heavy precipitation and extremes in both winter and summer, in the latter case in spite of pronounced drying (declines of seasonal precipitation) in most RCMs. Both convective and large-scale precipitation amounts tend to increase in all seasons except summer when large-scale precipitation amounts decrease. Extreme precipitation is projected to increase for both convective and large-scale precipitation. The changes of precipitation characteristics are more pronounced in simulations driven by the high concentration RCP8.5 scenario, with a larger increase of temperature, and they are larger for precipitation with higher intensity. Increasing proportion of convective precipitation in summer and generally increasing intensity of precipitation may have important consequences, e.g. for soil erosion, replenishment of soil moisture, and occurrence of flash floods and droughts.


Earthquake-Related Damage of Ecuador [PB 12]

Patricia ALARCON1, Jose BELTRAN2, Edgar OSORNIO3, Antonio ESPINOZA4

1Structures Laboratory, Civil Engineering,University of Michoacán, Mexico; 2Research Risk Institute, INIGER, Mexico; 3University of Michoacán, México; 4University of Michoacán, México

On April 16, 2016, a M7.8 earthquake, offshore of the west coast northern Ecuador, according with USGS, occurred as a result of shallow thrust faulting on or near the plate boundary between the Nazca and South America plates. The location and mechanism of the earthquake are consistent with slip in then primary plate boundary interface or mega-thrust, between these two major plates. The processes of the assessment of damage were implemented by groups with internal experts and with external experts (consultants, professors, stakeholders of ONGs). The vulnerability of Ecuador buildings has been demonstrated, these include the non-engineered constructions and also many “engineered” buildings. The vulnerability of public infrastructure and the hospitals, has been evaluated. Now the priority is to strength the emergency response involving people and the development of a recovery plan. In this paper the earthquake-related damage are presented.


Water Filled Pores as Related to Water Storage and Hydraulic Conductivity in Agricultural Soils of the Nile Delta [PB 13]

Abdelmonem Mohamed Ahmed AMER

Faculty of Agriculture, Menoufia University, Shebin El-Kom, Egypt

Methods for reducing runoff losses described so far all involve water storage in the soil. The dynamic of soil moisture in plant-root zone can be studied through water storage, moisture conductivity, intrinsic permeability, and movement into the soil pore spaces. The volume of pore-space, size, shape, type and continuity of pores and distribution in soil are important characteristics related to the storage, conductivity and movement of water and gases. However, both soil texture and soil structure have a great influence on pore-size distribution which is the basic when dealing with the problems of soil water management, development of plant root system, flow and retention of heat and in investigations of soil strength. The movement of water by gravitational forces in the natural soils occurs principally through the non-capillary pores (i.e. rapidly drained pores), while the other movements occur in the capillaries that can be classified into coarse and fine capillary pores. The purpose of this study is to develop equations to describe and estimate the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity in relation to soil pore size classes that occupied with the available water in the soil root zone, where the unsaturated condition of soil water is a major state in nature after irrigation process or rain fall. Three alluvial clay soil profiles differing in their clay proportion and salinity were taken from the farm of Faculty of Agriculture, Shebin El-Kom, and from Epshan and El-Khamsein, Kafr El-Sheikh (at Nile Delta) respectively. The soils were used for application of the derived equations, and to develop the concepts, based on water retention curve, saturated hydraulic conductivity and the pore size function measured from undisturbed cores. Data showed the applicability of the suggested equations for calculating unsaturated hydraulic conductivity in the soil pores even for high clay soils.


Impact of Drought on Archaeological Buildings, Case Study: 33 Pol, Isfahan [PB 14]

Amir F. ROD, Niloofar AGHEBATI, Koushan FARAJOLLAHI ROD

Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of

Climate change has now emerged as one of the most serious threats impacting on the conservation of archaeological buildings. Protecting and managing World Heritage sites in a sustainable and effective manner is a shared responsibility. Therefore, there is a need to publicize all available information

As a result of recent periods of drought, subsoil with a significant clay component have been subject to shrinking as they dry out. Where buildings are supported on such soils (also known as reactive soils) they will tend to settle unevenly as shrinkage takes place. This often leads to cracking in brickwork and stonework. Conversely after periods of rain the dry clay will tend to swell. This tends to lift buildings (also called heave). Again this can be uneven and can cause cracking in different places to the shrinkage cracking. In some cases the shrink and swell cycles will simply open and close cracks.

There are several measures that can be taken to reduce the amount of movement and damage. Some measures include remedial works to drainage, site grading, moisture control by paving or buried membranes, crack reinforcing, wall jointing, tree removal and in some cases underpinning. Reactivity refers to the tendency for the clay soil beneath the footings to shrink and swell with changes in moisture content which can lift and lower the building. In this research the effect of drought on 33 Pol as a heritage bridge in Isfahan is investigated.


Flood Damages and Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies in Iran, the Case of Golestan Province [PB 15]

Iran GHAZI, Adel MOSADEGHI

Shakhes Pajouh Engineering and Research Institute of Natural Hazards Isfahan - Iran, Iran, Islamic Republic of

Natural hazards and their disasters have been affecting Iran for many years. The contrasting natural hazards such as floods and droughts have had chronic impacts on Iran of which the floods of the Province of Golestan located in the extreme southeastern part of the Caspian Sea are the obvious examples.

The findings of this research show:

• Severe fluctuations of the discharge of Tehran and Golestan rivers due to sudden and severe rainfall especially in hot weather, and land use change in river upstream are the major causes of people surprise during the flood occurrence and abundant damage.

• Most damages of flood in Golestan are related to the Gorgan River from 2001 to 2004.

• The strategies adopted in this study, including structural and non-structural integrated researches, development of early warning systems, modification of riverbeds and public education can be effective in reducing the damages due to the flood in the region.


Disaster Risk Reduction of World Heritage Sites of Iran, the case of Persepolis and Naghshe-e Rustam Sites [PB 16]

Iran GHAZI1, Masoud REZAEI MONFARED2, Mohammad hassan TALEBIAN3

1Shakhes Pajouh Engineering and Research Institute of Natural Hazards Isfahan - Iran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2The head of the department of Persepolis World Heritage and Naghshe –e Rustam Sites; 3Culural Heritage Organization, Tehran, Iran

Geological and geotechnical hazards such as landslides, earthquakes, floods and drought threaten numerous cultural heritage sites around the world (Gizzi, 2008)

Persepolis world heritage and Naghshe-e Rustam sites which are among the significant legacies of Iran are the obvious examples. These historical monuments have remained from Achaemenid period (530-330 B.C). The sites are located in the Marvdasht plain of the province of Fars , south eastern part of Iran. Integrated disaster risk reduction research in these areas is one of the most fundamental prerequisite to the introduction of any disaster risk reduction policy.

A recent hydrological study indicates that more than 20 meters of the earth’s crust layers have been subsided due to drought and extensive digging of water wells and also over extraction of water have resulted in the creation of long deep cracks on the nearby surface layers detected for the first time in 2012.

In this paper, the authors through the deployment of reliable documents as well as field observations, present an evidence-based description of the issues and recommend some practical strategies to eliminate underlying causes of disaster risks such as drought, excessive ground water withdrawal and inefficient irrigated agricultural system of the plain.


Estimation of Occurence and Intensity of Extreme Convective Events Based on Large Scale Atmospheric Parameters [PB 17]

Sven ULBRICH1, Aidan BROCKLEHURST2, Alexandros GEORGIADIS2, Joaquim PINTO1

1University of Cologne, Germany; 2Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting, United Kingdom

Convective extreme events are responsible for a large number of losses across Europe. This is caused by lightning, extreme precipitation associated with flash floods, gusts, or hail. Along with potential for severe and highly localised economic losses, these events also pose a risk to life and infrastructure.

For the development of a reliable stochastic model of these risks, a problem is that many convective storms are not recorded in the insurance data. They often hit uninhabited areas without insured properties or motor vehicles. An alternative means to detect convective storms is through the use of remote sensing data. In order to use an atmospheric model for an estimation of risk, these intensity distributions must me related to large scale atmospheric parameters. A regression model is developed to estimate the regional rainfall distribution from large scale conditions (atmospheric stability and humidity). Furthermore, this model takes into account the influence of nearby surface fronts (in particular cold fronts). This model can then be applied to climate model data to reduce uncertainties and to construct a catastrophe model.

In future work, the model will be adjusted to estimate hail events and to develop a probabilistic catastrophe model to assess the associated risks as they attempt to answer key questions such as: Which locations are most at threat? or, What is the worst case scenario?

Aon Benfield’s Summer Storm catastrophe model, due for release in 2017, is the product of an on-going collaboration between the University of Cologne and Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development team.


Emergency Situation and the People with Chronic Diseases [PB 18]

Reza BATHAEE1, Sina EHGHAGHI2, Marjan ASADPOUR3

1MSc in Disaster Management and Risk Governance, Funder and Organizer of INDM Conference Iran; 2MSc in Construction Management, senior project Manager, INDM Conference Iran; 3BSc in Management, Project Manager, INDM Conference Iran

With a strong earthquake in megacities in Western Asian countries (cities such as Tehran, Kabul, and Karachi), a significant number of existing houses in old urban fabrics will collapse and their residents will be injured and trapped under ruins and wreckage. In such a situation, the search and rescue operation will take countless hours. Therefore, the first priority is the rescue and triage of those with severe injuries. In such situations, a fraction of injured individuals are people who suffer from chronic diseases such as those with diabetes in particular type 1, epilepsy, or need to be dialysed. These groups of impacted population will have no access to their regular medical care or to the hospital on the first days after an earthquake. Therefore, they will encounter more severe conditions in comparison to the ordinary injured as they may not have access to their special medicine such as insulin or prescribed medications. In emergency situations, there is normally no understanding for the people with diseases. Emergency responders may not have the necessary information about the impacted population with special needs.

A number of solutions and recommendations have been proposed by emergency managers to resolve these issues. In particular, it has been recommended that people with chronic diseases should be active and plan their medical needs in advance. There are many ways for keeping their prescriptions and medicine in various places at home, with a neighbour in the neighbourhood. In this paper we propose to build a network which consists of a group of members with diseases in different cities or towns. One of the responsibilities of this group will be to support the affected members in disaster impacted areas by providing medical solutions to them. The most important issue for the patients is to understand through friends, partners and families. The network knows the needs of their members and the type of help they may need in these situations. People with such medical needs should become a member of these networks and share their medical needs. Their denial of their situation may lead them to unconsciousness or even death.


Understanding Risk for Developing a National Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction [PB 18B]

Fuat OKTAY1, Mehmet BALCILAR2, Betül KURADA3

1Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, Turkey; 2Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Mersin, Turkey; 3Planning and Mitigation Department,Disaster and Emergency Management Authority AFAD, Turkey

In terms of natural disaster risk level, Turkey ranks as 107th in the world among 171 countries according to the World Risk Index (WRI) of 2015 with a WRI value of 5.37. According to the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, Turkey was the 18th largest economy of the world in 2014 among 195 countries with a GDP of 792.5 billion US dollars. In terms of population, it also the 19th largest country in 2019 among 205 countries, with a population of 79.6 million. Unfortunately, a significant gap exists between the WRI ranking of Turkey relative to its world ranking both in terms of population and GDP. This unmatched ranking makes Turkey as one of those countries having large population and economy exposed a large number of disasters.

This paper focuses on understanding disaster risk at national level for Tukey. This paper introduces, hazard, exposure, vulnerability measures indicators are calculated at various administrative levels. Risk evaluation is carried in local levels with risk indicators for various dimensions. These indicators are than aggregated into first city and later to province levels. TARAP, then, establishes short-, medium-, and long-term plans jointly with all relevant bodies. All plans plans are coordinated and monitored by a national level board under the coordination of AFAD.

This study will first explain the system AFAD developed for evaluating hazards, vulnerabilities and risks, which are all measured at local levels based on standardized measures. Second, we develop indicators of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, resilience capacity and show how this are used for planning. Third, we show how these risk measures are used in the national disaster risk plans for prioritizing activities and resource allocation. Finally, the paper also discusses how does the monitoring of the DRR activities work based on the standardized indicators.



 
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