Integrative Risk Management - towards resilient cities
28 August - 1 September 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA
The programme includes the IDRC Davos 2016 agenda of sessions, plenary sessions, special panels and workshops. Click on the session title for more details.
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IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA
Session 15: Climate Change Impacts and Risks
Analysis of Long-term Variations of Wind Speed and Haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and their Correlation
Beijing Normal University,
The current global climate change research focuses on the temperature and precipitation, the study of the wind is relatively small. As an important climate factor, change of wind has a very important influence to the environment, and is mainly manifested in the change of wind speed. In recent decades, with serious haze pollution problem increasingly prominent, wind speed research is very urgent. Utilize China's national meteorological site observation data, this study analyzes and the long-term variation characteristics of haze and near surface wind speed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and their correlation, the results show that: (1) The overall wind speed showed a trend of decline from 1961 to 2014 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and declining rate of spring and autumn is greater than the summer and fall season, (2) the haze days in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 1961 to 2014 is increasing and the haze days has increased dramatically in recent years, winter and spring haze days significantly more than summer and autumn. (3) The results of variance analysis showed that wind speed has significant influences on the haze, the results of correlation analysis showed that the winds in rain season present positive correlation with visibility.
Analysis of Long-term Variations of Wind Speed and Haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and their Correlation, Zhang GANGFENG from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Implications of Cascading Effects for the EU Floods Directive
1Gerstgraser - Ingenieurbüro für Renaturierung; 2Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, United Kingdom
The adoption of the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) represented a crucial improvement in the management of watercourses and coastlines. However, the beginning of a new phase of implementation requires the assessment of which emerging topics may be included in the review process. The aim of our research is to understand the existence of any legislative gaps that could limit the preparedness to cascading events and critical infrastructure breakdowns. First, we provide a review of the Flood Directive, the cascading phenomena and the vulnerability of critical infrastructure in the European legislation. Secondly, we analyse some case-studies to test the present approach and to improve the work of decision makers. Our results suggest that the Floods Directive tends to focus on localized flood impacts at smaller time scale, and it could be ineffective to address the cross- scale impact of cascading events. Although some of the corrective actions may not be of competence of the Directive, we argue that their inclusion could limit uncertainties in the attribution of responsibility and the coordination among different institutional levels.
This paper has been published in the International Journal of River Basin Management. DOI:10.1080/15715124.2016.1149074
Implications of Cascading Effects for the EU Floods Directive, Gianluca PESCAROLI from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
A Comparative Study of the Mortality Risk of Extreme Temperature in Urban and Rural Areas of China: An Analysis Based on 122 Communities
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing, Beijing Normal University,China; 2Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China; 3Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education,Beijing,China
Goals: With the global warming circumstance, more and more specialists focus on the risk of extreme weather events on the public health. Compared with the more studies on the temperature- mortality relationship in developed countries, relative fewer have been concerned in the developing countries. However, rapid urbanization and poverty in rural areas have been two big challenges for most developing countries in the world. Thus, it is highly significant to characterize extreme temperature risk on public health in urban and rural areas separately. Understanding their difference and the controlling drivers will consequently benefit adopting reasonable measures to improve and protect public health. 49 urban communities and 73 rural areas across China have been selected to explore the mortality risk of hot and cold effect on public health in this study.
Methods: Daily mortality, meteorological variables and socioeconomic data from 122 Chinese communities were collected for the period 2008-2012. The Distributed Lag Non-linear Model was used to estimate the community-specific effects of temperature on mortality at first, and then a multivariate meta-analysis was utilized to pool the estimates of those effects according to temperature zones.
Findings: Our research showed that both cold and hot temperature increase the mortality risk and different risk existed between urban and rural areas. In cold and tropical regions, the mortality risk of extreme temperature between urban and rural areas is not significantly different, while such discrepancy becomes huge in warm regions. Specifically, the mortality risk of hot temperature in urban areas is over 12% higher than that in rural areas while that risk of cold temperature in rural areas is about 8% higher than in that of urban areas in warm regions.
A Comparative Study of the Mortality Risk of Extreme Temperature in Urban and Rural Areas of China An Analysis Based on 122 Communities, Chenzhi WANG from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Gas Flaring, Climate Change and the Nigeria Case
Brandenburg Technical University, Germany
The practical effects of climate change on both the microcosm and macrocosm context has attained a cusp, such that ravages are now too blatant to be overemphasized. The exertion for the abatement, mitigation or adaption to climate change is therefore existential. However, it is self-evident and apparent that this global perturbation is anthropogenic, going by the theory of determinism. It is a tragic illustration of the prevailing dogma and metatheories of the industrial age. The economic sectors (Building sector, Transport sector, and industrial sector) have been identified be primal contributors of greenhouse gases which are the canonical causes of these global climate distortions.
Therefore, this paper discusses the effects of gas flaring - as a contributory factor to global warming and climate change - on the environment of the Nigeria context. The oil producing community-Imiringi in Bayelsa State will be the precise case. What are the mitigating or adaptive possibilities? What is the viability or potency of such strategies? What will be the contributory addendum of these strategies at the global scale? These are the questions raised and discussed in this paper.
To substantiate these audacious objectives and position this paper as a study of maximum utility, it is therefore preceded with a theoretical elaborations and a methodology. This involves collection of primary and secondary data via existing literature and it is subsequently interpreted and analysed. Conclusively, this paper reiterates the fact that the abatement of gas flaring in Nigeria has not received comparative attention and it could be a contributing solution to the mitigation of global climate change.
Gas Flaring, Climate Change and the Nigeria Case, Obafemi A.P OLUKOYA from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Climate Change Impacts at the Household Level Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal
1Kyoto University, Japan; 2Kyoto University, Japan; 3Kyoto University, Japan
There are many factors that affect the state of food security, among them climate change is one of the most prominent factors. As the rural community livelihoods are hugely dependent on the natural resources, extreme climate and climate-induced disasters make them more vulnerable. Therefore, it is very important to ensure the households’ food security in the rural communities. In this regards, this study tried to find out the socio-economic impact of climate change in the rural households` food security. The study started with the household survey to understand the climate change perception of local people for the last twenty years in Lamjung district Nepal and its impact on food availability, accessibility, consumption pattern and socio-economic status. Results depicted that impact of climate change is different among the households depending on spatial location, economic status and other factors. In Kunchha Village Development Committee (VDC), the one among three-studied VDCs, overall food security was improved as their food production, accessibility and consumption pattern were improved for the last twenty years. But in Khudi VDC state of food security worsened in the same period. Similarly, due to the emergence of insects and diseases, there was a loss in fruit production in all three VDCs, which was the major source of income. Consequently, the state of food security is likely to be more vulnerable in the future. Therefore, there is an urgent need of programs and policies to make the local people more resilient from the climate change impact.
Climate Change Impacts at the Household Level Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal, Shobha POUDEL from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Positive Experiences in Improving the Ecosystem Services of Cities in China and Greece
1Foundation for Sustainable Development FSD, Netherlands, The; 2Agricultural University of Athens; 3Changjing River Scientific Research Institute
Positive experiences from research in China and Europe were described at the Davos 2014 Forum by the authors. They showed the land use transformations were very important as they involved culture and economic benefits from new crops and economic services. Following on from this we can see that Le Corbusier, in his book towards a new architecture explains that before we can start with new industrial housing people need to become accustomed to the idea and develop the tools, From a visit to the Soil and Water Conservation Facility and educational centre in Xian (2016), we can see that the whole population has been prepared for a major national effort to stop erosion and end land degradation and that they have developed appropriate tools for each region of China. In Europe the tools are understood but the institutional and cultural changed required cannot be acted upon, possibly because of the way in which land is conceived. Changing this conception as Le Corbusier explains is what must happen if erosion and land degradation are to be acted upon as they are in China.
The paper will present research from Crete and Athens to illustrate the conclusions from more than 30 years of research by Prof Kosmas and his colleagues who were the architects of the Greek National Plan to stop desertification. They have provided the tolls and maps that are needed to undertake similar kinds of transformations as have been successful in China. This would strategically target reducing the evaporative losses of degraded land and increasing groundwater recharge The seventy percent of rainfall evaporated in areas could be trapped making use of the knowledge of the soils and geology present at Athens, creating water for the cities in the coast and enabling aqueducts to bed developed. Conditions could be recreated in cities that were comparable to those in Minoan times. Training people in water management is the task of the universities but a shift in focus should be made so that cities become self-sufficient. In Xian and Wuhan, the forests and mountains observed are managed for the urban population for recreation, nature and water conservation. The area is resilient to climate change.
Soil and water conservation are the key to climate change and flooding protection. Examples of innovative approaches will be described. Natural and man-made disasters occur because these are ignored by planners and architects. .
Positive Experiences in Improving the Ecosystem Services of Cities in China and Greece, Anton Charles IMESON from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
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