IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA

The programme includes the IDRC Davos 2016 agenda of sessions, plenary sessions, special panels and workshops. Click on the session title for more details.

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IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA


Session
Session 24: Critical Infrastructure Protection in Urban Areas
Time:
Wednesday, 31/Aug/2016:
8:15am - 9:45am

Session Chair: Susanne SARGEANT, British Geological Survey
Session Chair: Matteo SPADA, Paul Scherrer Institute
Room: Seehorn

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Presentations

Critical Infrastructure Assessments for Local Governments: An Examination of New Tools and Methodology Created for Local Authorities

Darren Scott BLACKBURN

Justice Institute of BC, Canada

There is a growing interest among communities to formally examine the resilience of locally-owned critical infrastructures. However, community members are often overwhelmed by the rigorous processes and technical outputs of these assessments. This can result in stakeholders feeling detached from the process and confused by how to translate assessment outputs into tangible planning activities.

To address this challenge, Defense Research and Development Canada engaged with Emergency Management British Columbia and the Justice Institute of BC on the development of a user-friendly critical infrastructure assessment process for local governments. The development process was structured in the form of two research projects - the first spanning in 2014/2015 and the second in 2015/2016.

The output of these research projects was the creation of a community-driven critical infrastructure assessment process. This process makes use of plain-language terminology and step-by-step instructions to guide lay-users in identifying the critical dependencies between locally-owned assets and the services provided by the local government. Materials developed as part of this project include written instructions, demonstration videos, customizable Excel spreadsheets, and posters. These materials are freely available for download and use by community leaders.

Throughout the development of the materials, a series of field tests were performed in communities with different sizes and demographics. The efficacy of the process was assessed during each test, resulting in changes and updates to the materials.

This presentation will examine seven case-study communities that have engaged with this assessment process. This will include a review of the materials and tools supporting the process; the experiences and outcomes of the participating communities; and areas for future development and validation.


Seismic Performance Risk Assessment of a Chilean Hospital

Philomène FAVIER1,2, Alan POULOS1,2, Jorge VÁSQUEZ1,2, Juan Carlos DE LA LLERA1,2

1CIGIDEN, National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management CIGIDEN CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017; 2Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

In the event of an earthquake, hospitals must provide not only standard community healthcare services but also emergency medical care related to the event. Damage on structural and non-structural components impact the functionality of the hospital, decreasing the efficiency of the healthcare service. We propose herein an innovative methodology to quantify hospital seismic performance by taking into account structural response of the building, damage of non-structural components, loss of functionality of the hospital, and increased patient arrivals due to the earthquake. The proposed approach uses nonlinear dynamic analysis to compute the structural response of a hospital in the city of Iquique, Chile, when subjected to a given ground motion, which enables us to calculate inter-story drift ratios and floor accelerations at every location within the building. The non-structural damage is linked to the response through the use of specific fragility curves. The loss of functionality, expressed as the number of rooms that were rendered inoperative, is estimated from non-structural damage. A discrete event model of the emergency department (ED) is then used to simulate the flow of patients within, this model describes how the hospital responds to the earthquake over time. Finally, the performance of the hospital is quantified using the mean ED waiting times. The model runs under a risk framework and provides annual rates of exceedance of this performance variable, which is of great relevance in long term risk management of critical infrastructure.


Critical Infrastructure, Panarchies and the Vulnerability Paths of Cascading Disasters

Gianluca PESCAROLI, David E. ALEXANDER

Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, United Kingdom

Cascading effects and cascading disasters are emerging fields of scientific research. The widespread diffusion of functional networks increases the complexity of interdependent systems and their vulnerability to large-scale disruptions. Although in recent years studies of interconnections and chain effects have improved significantly, cascading phenomena are often associated with the “toppling domino metaphor”, or with high-impact, low-probability events. This paper aims to support a paradigm shift in the state of the art by proposing a new theoretical approach to cascading events in terms of their root causes and lack of predictability. By means of interdisciplinary theory building, we demonstrate how cascades reflect the ways in which panarchies collapse. We suggest that the vulnerability of critical infrastructure may orientate the progress of events in relation to society's feedback loops, rather than merely being an effect of natural triggers. Our conclusions point to a paradigm shift in the preparedness phase that could include escalation points and social nodes, but that also reveals a brand new field of research for disaster scholars.

This research has been published in Natural Hazards, February 2016, DOI 10.1007/s11069-016-2186-3.


Critical Infrastructure and Disaster Risk Reduction Planning under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Uncertainty

Olga SPACKOVA, Beatrice DITTES, Daniel STRAUB

Teschnische Universität München, Germany

The planning and implementation of infrastructure systems and integrated disaster risk reduction is associated with large investments and extended lifetimes. For example, 3,4 billion Euro is to be spent in Bavaria alone on flood protection measures before 2020. The identification of optimal decisions is hindered by the uncertainty on the frequency of extreme disaster events, on the societal vulnerability and the damage potential. In particular, the effects of climate and anthropogenic change are associated with large uncertainty, but most extreme events are poorly understood even under stationary conditions.

Strategies exist for dealing with these uncertainties. These include the application of safety margins on the system capacity and the implementation of flexible systems that can be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The selection of the appropriate strategy should consider many factors, such as the lifetime of the system, the type and scale of uncertainty as well as the possibility for gathering information in the future for reducing the uncertainty. A full optimization of these strategies under uncertainty therefore requires sophisticated extensive modelling that is not practicable in specific projects. To support the selection, we discuss the optimality of strategies in function of key factors (e.g. characteristics of designed system, regulatory framework, type and degree of uncertainty, future learning), based on quantitative Bayesian decision models. Our results show, for example, that flexible systems are especially beneficial in cases where uncertainty is high and where the learning effect in the near future is expected to be significant. However, they are typically less advantageous in the context of risk-based decision processes than in a rule-based regulatory framework; in the former case, it is often more effective to add safety margins, which are typically a no-regret strategy.


Risk Assessment of Terminals and Tanks Petrochemical Company (TTPC) by Applying ”Failure Mode & Effect Analysis (FMEA)” Method

Nasim SHALAMZARI, Mohammad Hassan GOLESTAN, Zohreh KARBALAIPOUR, Maryam KHALEGHIAN

khalijfars University of applied science and technology, bandar imam, khuzestan, Iran,

Nowadays by applying different risk assessment methods, accidents could be identified before occurrence, so we can act to prevent them. The research has been carried out to evaluate the Safety, Health and Environmental Risk of production units of terminals and tanks Petrochemical Co. by applying FMEA method. For This Purpose, after identification of the various activities and processes in the company, the potential harmful and hazardous factors of the company were identified. Then, they were classified according to their possible occurrence, encounter rate and the intensity of their effects on human, environment and equipment. The result of a comparison between the rate of activities in different units of the company estates that , the risk level of off-site activities causing pollution on the the beach, by the score of 180, have the highest risk level and Washing ,cleaning activities, by the score of 16, have the lowest Risk level. Finally the risks were prioritized and managerial approaches were proposed.


EXPO 2015: The Italian Experience

Alessandra ROSSODIVITA1,2, Maria Rita GISMONDO1, Giuliano RIZZARDINI1, Stefano GUZZETTI1, Pietro MARINO3, Carlo PICCO2, Guido Francesco VILLA2, Alberto ZOLI2

1Luigi Sacco Academic Hospital, Milan, Italy.; 2AREU- Regional Medical Emergency Service Company of Lombardia, Milan, Italy; 3Ospedale Fatebenefratelli ed Oftalmico, Milan, Italy

Italy had the challenge of hosting EXPO 2015 – The Universal Exhibition in Milan, from last May 1 to October 31, more than 20 millions attended. Gatherings of this scale require complex planning to ensure the availability of adequate public health care during the event, and also must integrate the needs of the venue into the existing medical resources of the region. AREU, the Regional Emergency Service Company of Lombardia (EMS), was called to organize the health preparedness and response for EXPO.

AREU worked in prepare an integrated model of intra- and extra- hospital preparedness and response, involving 7 major hospitals , that should be ready in 20 minutes to receive victims for conventional major medical events and also non conventional events. Luigi Sacco Hospital, as Medical and University Center of Milan, and Italian National Referral Center for Bioterrorism and SARS, was chosen as referral hospital for EXPO to manage bioterrorism events and infectious diseases emergencies. Syndromic surveillance and Epidemic intelligence principles were applied as early warning tools for monitoring possible non-conventional events.

It was the first time in Italy that was organized a so complex integrated health care response for a mass gathering event such as EXPO. AREU organized an all-hazards of intra-and extra hospital preparedness and response, in which civil and military competencies were integrated suggesting a new approach.

Hospital disaster preparedness is critical to community safety, especially as evidenced by the last emerging global infectious outbreaks, or due to terrorist attacks, or disasters that severely taxed local hospital resources. Standardizing hospitals and EMS preparedness and response during disasters and mass gathering events became a priority of all countries and public health system concern.

EXPO 2015 showed a new model of integrated approach of all hazard response of the emergency system for mass gathering events.


Explaining & Determining Social Dimensions of Resilient Cities Case Study: Tehran Metropolis

MohammadReza FARZADBEHTASH1, MohammadAli KEYNEJHAD2, MohammadTaghi AGHABABAEI3

1Tehran Municipality, Advisor of Chief of Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO) & Art University, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2University President of Tabriz Islamic Art University; 3PhD Candidate in University of Auckland; New Zealand's

Urbanization is a complex dynamic process playing out over multiple scales of space and time.

Virtually all of the world’s future population growth is predicted to take place in cities and their urban landscapes – the UN estimates a global increase from the current 2.9 billion urban residents to a staggering 5.0 billion by 2030.

The current approach existing in the field of disaster management and urban management is more of a coping and risk reduction strategy. Meanwhile, the concept of resilience is a new concept which is mostly applied while facing unknowns and uncertainties.

Local resiliency with regard to disasters means that a locale is able to withstand an extreme natural event without suffering devastating losses, damage, diminished productivity, or quality of life and without a large amount of assistance from outside the community. Resilience is defined as “the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and re-organize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedback”.

At this article we compare these models and frameworks and consider their components and dimensions. Then, we consider social dimensions and components of resilience in these models and then define proper dimension of social and cultural resilience in Cities.

The purpose of this article is to evaluate and measure the social resilience scale of Tehran metropolis regardless of any specific threat or hazard. Therefore, on the first step, the social resilience factors and parameters along with the conceptual model of the study were identified and developed based on studying the theoretical basis and literature and also interviews with experts of the field, according to the definitions and selected approved models of this article and the comparative studies.



 
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