Integrative Risk Management - towards resilient cities
28 August - 1 September 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA
The programme includes the IDRC Davos 2016 agenda of sessions, plenary sessions, special panels and workshops. Click on the session title for more details.
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IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA
Session 05: Risk and Resilience Indices
Development of a Women’s Safety Index on Gender-based Violence: A Cross-Regional Analysis of Risk Factors in Seoul City
1Korean Women's Development Institute(KWDI), Korea, Republic of (South Korea); 2Korean National Police University, Korea, Republic of (South Korea)
The impact and resilience of risk is stratified in a gendered way in the socio-cultural context. This is because when it comes to power relations, women differ from their male counterparts. Women are more likely than men to be targeted by acts of violence – domestic violence, sexual violence and other forms of criminal actions. Consequently, understanding the current situation of violence committed against women is vital in order to come up with effective policies for women safety. Local communities, in particular, can become a strong base for risk governance to create a safe environment for women.
The purpose of this study is to investigate potential factors in the local environment that might induce a higher possibility for gender-based violence in Seoul City, South Korea. Our study employed two empirical strategies.
First, we developed a Women’s Safety Index (hereafter, WSI) with the local community as the measurement target group. WSI measures a number of items reflecting local characteristics of women’s safety – e.g., socio-economic status, proportion of female-headed households, etc. We found that a correlation exists between WSI and women's safety conditions in several cases. Then we categorized Seoul’s regions into three different clusters according to the safety level of gender-friendly environment.
Second, we conducted a comparative analysis between regional spots in Seoul that have a relatively high frequency of gender-based violence (hot spots) and spots that have a relatively low frequency of gender-based violence (cold spots). To differentiate between hot spots and cold spots, we analyzed 42,617 cases of domestic violence in 2014 and 389 cases of sexual violence. The cases were sexual and indecent assaults occurring from 2012 to 2013 in the Gangseo district of Seoul. Then we employed geo-coding analysis by using an X-ray map which divides Seoul into 25 different administrative districts. We found that a significant difference exists between hot spots and cold spots depending on the environmental traits of a given local community.
Our study results positively affirm that intentional and cooperative efforts should be put into setting up a prevention system against gender-based violence. Such a system possesses high potential for drastically reducing violence against women in local communities around the world.
Development of a Women s Safety Index on Gender-based Violence A Cross-Regional Analysis of Risk Factors in Seoul City, Mi-Hye CHANG from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Stress Testing Cities ─ How to Live and Plan with New Risks
University of Bonn, Germany
Although cities have historically been resilient settlements, now more than ever, they are experiencing wide range of risks and threats on an unheard scale. For many years, hazard and risk scholars had just focused on understanding the geophysical and biophysical attributes of risks and hazards and the impacts of overlapping and accumulated stress scenarios within complex urban areas had not been well-articulated. For a sustainable urban development policy, it is important to assess how the conditions of social and economic attributes and physical and built environment of cities contribute to urban resilience.
This study develops a theoretical framework to operationalize the concept of urban resilience in the context of various threats and stresses. The developed methodology provides a self-evaluating tool that can be performed by every city. The prototype of the model follows a multi -hazard approach and examines the eight stress scenarios. The impacts of these multiple stresses on potential performance and capacities of the study areas are analyzed and captured by developing a sound set of indicators which are robust, relevant, representative, and are classified into two dimensions of robustness, and adaptability.
The dimension robustness is operationalized by quantitative statistic data and can be presented in a nationwide ranking of all cities. The dimension adaptability is a qualitative audit among expert’s of the city- administration.
The empirical application has been carried out among 106 German cities. The results show for each city resilience profiles with different strengths and weaknesses and regional patterns of resilience in Germany. Policy implications for the adjustment of federal funding schemes will be discussed.
Stress Testing Cities - How to Live and Plan with New Risks, Theo KOETTER from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Measuring the Progress of a Recovery Process after an Earthquake: The Case of L’Aquila, Italy
1UNIGIS Latin America, University of Salzburg, Austria; 2Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Austria
After the earthquake in 2009, L’Aquila (Italy) started a torturous recovery process, characterized by a delay in the reconstruction of the city center, the political and legal intrigues, and the dissatisfaction of the population with the decisions made and actions taken by the government. Between 2010 and 2014 we formulated a recovery index based on spatial indicators, such as building condition and building use, to measure the progress of the recovery process in L’Aquila. Now, seven years after the earthquake, we are not only interested in measuring the progress of the recovery in L’Aquila, but also in validating the usefulness of the proposed recovery index. To achieve this objective, we are going to consider the same set of spatial indicators and expert criteria that we considered to determine the progress of the recovery in L’Aquila by 2010, 2012, and 2014. Over these years, the city center of L’Aquila was selected as the sampling area, to establish the progress of the recovery in the whole city. In 2016 we found that the number of reconstructed buildings and buildings under ongoing construction has significantly increased, followed by the number of inhabited buildings. The number of buildings classified as partially enabled, propped, reconstruction projected, and damaged had greatly decreased by 2016, while the number of demolished buildings and buildings with restricted use slightly increased. The number of buildings with residential and commercial use increased along the main roads by 2016. Paradoxically, while progress was observed in the overall building condition, there was no significant progress in the building use. We can conclude that the proposed recovery index is useful for identifying the spatial pattern of the recovery process in an urban area affected by an earthquake. At the same time, this recovery index allows us to quantify the recovery progress based on indicators.
Measuring the Progress of a Recovery Process after an Earthquake The Case of L Aquila, Italy, Diana CONTRERAS from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
The Power of Communities in Coping with Natural Disasters: The Case of El Morro, Chile
University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
In 2010, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake and tsunami struck Chile. Coastal areas were particularly affected by the disaster; fishing villages were completely destroyed and many people were injured and killed by the tsunami. However, exceptionally, only one fishing village entirely survived the tsunami impact in the Talcahuano region. This is the case of the El Morro community, which despite its boats and houses being swept away by the destructive waves, suffered no deaths. This community, considered the most successful experience in effectively coping with the disaster in the country, is the case study to be analysed in this paper. The objective of this paper is to examine the resilience capacities that were crucial to the survival and recovery of the community. The results of an ethnographic investigation conducted during 6 months in El Morro show that social capacities, including participation, leadership, cooperation, social networks, trust, sense of community, place attachment, and local knowledge were essential for recovering and positively dealing with the event. The El Morro case study revealed that communities have the power to activate internal resources and capacities to cope with natural disasters. These findings could be useful for designing effective disaster risk reduction programmes and promoting community resilience in Chile and in other developing countries.
The Power of Communities in Coping with Natural Disasters The Case of El Morro, Chile, Jenny MORENO from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
An Analysis of National Disaster Vulnerability, Risk and Resilience Indices
REM Programme, UME School, IUSS Pavia, Italy
This presentation will review the current state of practice in composite indicators of disaster vulnerability, risk and resilience for comparing nations. It will highlight key gaps and limitations in this current set of tools and recommend actions for researchers and policy makers to improve the development and use of composite indicators. The review is based on an extensive search of the academic and grey literature for composite indicator methodologies that addressed multiple hazards; included social and economic aspects of risk, vulnerability or resilience; were national in scope; explained the method and variables used; focused on the present-day; and, had been tested or implemented. Information on the index construction, geographic areas of application, variables used and other relevant data was collected and analysed. The review found 25 composite indicator frameworks for assessing the disaster risk, vulnerability or resilience of nations. It revealed that almost all international indices use a hierarchical or deductive framework based on statistical data and other published indices, with a smaller number of relational methods and one that was based on expert input. Almost all indices included some variable related to disasters, however less than half included measures of disaster prevention and preparedness activity, and even these only used relatively few of these variables. A comparison of five replicable indices found high correlations between some and the Human Development Index, indicating they may not add value beyond generic measures of socio-economic development. Only seven indices had any sensitivity or uncertainty analysis or validation applied. In none of these were uncertainty estimates reported nor was the analysis comprehensive. It is recommended that future work focus on more robust sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, validation, improved documentation and broader deployment of the interactive display of results.
An Analysis of National Disaster Vulnerability, Risk and Resilience Indices, Benjamin BECCARI from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
The multiscale patterns of urban disaster resilience: Case study of Tehran City, Iran
IGG, University of Bonn, Germany, Germany
The debate on the various conceptual frameworks and theories of resilience since its formation and progress in ecology and socio-ecological systems until subsequent developments in other disciplines such as sustainability, mitigation and adaptation, and disaster management is controversially ongoing. In the context of natural hazards and disasters, resilience is often defined as the ability of a system or community to resist, mitigate, respond, and recover from the effects in efficient way and timely manner. How communities react to and recover from disasters and hazards is often conceptualized in terms of their disaster resilience level. Numerous studies have been carried out on the importance of disaster resilient communities; however, a few of them suggest how and by which mechanism the concept of disaster resilience can be conceptualized.
The starting point for conceptualizing the concept of disaster resilience is performed through the development of measurement and benchmarking tools for better understanding of factors that contribute to resilience and the effectiveness of interventions to sustain it. Constructing a valid set of composite indicators has been addressed to fulfill this task in the literature. While the predominant approach in constructing composite indicators has been the deductive approach, using an inductive methodology, this study presents a place-based measurement of disaster resilience that is both conceptually and theoretically sound and easy enough to use in a risk planning context.
The 368 urban neighborhoods (within 22 urban regions) of Tehran City were utilized as the study unit for better understanding of the inherent resilience and its multi scale patterns in the study areas. Neighborhoods in the Center and Sought of the city have the least inherent resilience, while neighborhoods in the North, Northwest, and Midwest contain the most resilience.
The multiscale patterns of urban disaster resilience Case study of Tehran City, Iran, Asad ASADZADEH from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
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