Integrative Risk Management - towards resilient cities
28 August - 1 September 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA
The programme includes the IDRC Davos 2016 agenda of sessions, plenary sessions, special panels and workshops. Click on the session title for more details.
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IDRC Davos 2016 CONFERENCE AGENDA
Session 14: Earthquake Resistance of the Built Environment
Post Earthquake Assessment in Forestry and Environments: Needs Careful Prevention and Environmental Recovery for Sustainability in Nepal
1Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation, Nepal; 2National Planning Commission, Nepal; 3USAID, Hariyo Ban Program, WWF Nepal
Nepal is the 11th most earthquake-prone country in the world. A 7.6 magnitude earthquake on 25th April 2015 and followed aftershocks made devastation and more than 8,900 casualties and 22,300 injuries. The lives of eight million people almost one-third of the population of Nepal, have been impacted in thirty-one of the country's 75 districts. Although there have been a huge damages including losses in several sectors accounted $7065 million, in Environment and Forestry sector, the damages mainly comprised of three categories: destruction of forest and protected areas, installed environmentally friendly technologies and assets of government and community-based natural resource management institutions.The largest loss is in ecosystem services. Large areas of natural forests destroyed compromised the capacity of natural forest ecosystems to deliver important ecosystem services– or simply the benefits people receive from ecosystems. Another major impact is the increased risks from environmental hazards such as landslides. The total damage and loss to the sector was $ 329. 60 and 106.1 million respectively excluding loss of the ecosystem value of $ 340.21 million. The total recovery and reconstruction cost was estimated at $ 251.97 million. The recovery activities will include measures to building capacities to reduce pressures and threats to forests and ecosystems. An important activity is to support community based user groups to rehabilitate and restore their forests including livelihood support to help rebuild environmental incomes from natural resources. Environmental principles are to be implemented for the better nature and community through (1) ensuring that reconstruction and recovery activities are environmentally sustainable and will withstand future disasters including those posed by climate change; (2) enforcing environmental impact assessment during reconstruction in order to avoid future disasters; and ensure enforcement; and, (3) ensuring that timber and fuel wood collection complies with existing forest management plans and promote alternative energy and energy efficient technologies to reduce pressure on forests.
Increasing Resilience to Earthquakes: the Earthquakes without Frontiers Experience
1British Geological Survey, United Kingdom; 2Overseas Development Institute, United Kingdom; 3University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Earthquakes without Frontiers (EwF) is a 5 year research project (2012-2017) that aims to increase resilience to earthquakes in Kazakhstan, Nepal and Bihar, and Northeast China. To do this, the EwF team, which includes earth scientists, social scientists and science-policy practitioners, is working in partnership with local scientists, practitioners and decision makers in these countries.
A key goal for EwF is to ensure that the research we produce addresses real needs and contributes to resilience building. Documenting and reflecting on what we learn about how to achieve this goal is an important aspect of EwF’s approach. Formal and informal discussions among the team show that integrating science into disaster risk reduction (DRR) and resilience building processes presents certain challenges for a project like this. They fall broadly into these five themes:
1. The need for good interdisciplinary cooperation and breaking down of disciplinary boundaries
2. Engaging with stakeholders effectively for sustained periods of time
3. Understanding how scientific information is used and viewed by different DRR stakeholders and tackling the challenges that arise when trying to communicate uncertainty
4. Undertaking research with and for stakeholders in developing countries and managing differences in priorities or the way people undertake research
5. Sharing learning across the consortium of organisations involved in EwF
As the project enters its final year, we are building on what we have already learned and exploring the nature of these challenges in greater depth. We are learning how the EwF team have perceived and tackled them so that the project and its findings can support the resilience building process beyond advancing our understanding of hazard and risk. At the conference we will present our findings to date on how research projects like EwF that aim to contribute to DRR and building resilience can achieve impact.
Increasing Resilience to Earthquakes the Earthquakes without Frontiers Experience, Susanne SARGEANT from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Seismic Risk Assessment of Buried Pipelines in City Regions
Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, Islamic Republic of
As a natural disaster, earthquake phenomenon carries enormous physical and emotional costs on human societies yearly. Therefore it needs to receive special attention and research. So far many researchers and decision makers have tried to address this subject in order to predict its harmful consequences, propose appropriate solutions, facilitate its management, and reduce its destructive impacts. Seismic risk reduction necessitates comprehension and control of two factors; namely, seismic hazard and vulnerability. A region of Tehran mega-city was chosen to assess the seismic risk level considering these factors. This is done through providing the existing conditions of buried pipelines. Plane strain sections of buried pipelines are selected for the purpose of the study. Seven earthquake records related to the region were chosen based on the mechanism of the fault, soil type and the distance between the site location and the selected fault. The earthquake records were scaled according to the results of the seismic hazard analysis, and the design spectra were proposed. On the other hand, the periods of the buried pipelines and surrounding soil system were evaluated through free vibration analyses. Then, the time history analyses of pipe-soil system subjected to the earthquake records were carried out. Eventually, the pipeline section stress under the effect of axial, shear and bending forces for three types of pipelines with different diameters under ensemble earthquake records were calculated and compared with the capacity stress. As a result, the level of the seismic risk of the buried pipelines was drawn. With this in mind, some solutions were presented to decrease the seismic risk of buried pipelines for urban areas.
Seismic Risk Assessment of Buried Pipelines in City Regions, Hamzeh SHAKIB from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Assessment of Resiliency in Urban Fabrics against Earthquake in Iran (Case Study: Ghazvin)
Isalamic Azad University, Iran, Islamic Republic of
Disasters, whether caused by humans or nature, impose significant threats to sustainability and resiliency. Reducing vulnerability to natural disasters is an essential component of achieving resilient cities. Iran is one of the most seismically country which experienced several strong earthquakes in its history and most of cities and towns are developed in earthquake prone zone. Qazvin is a historical city in Iran with important commercial role which lies in most hazardous prone area in the country with respect to earthquake and during history it had been faced with different earthquakes which had drastic impacts on it.
In this paper, some important parameters that effect on decreasing vulnerability and increasing resiliency in Ghazvin urban fabrics were evaluated. Theses parameter were categorized into different groups related to urban built environment in detail to arrive at strategy or policy based solution that are necessary to support the rehabilitation of urban fabrics. In this research descriptive-analytical-comparative method was used to identify the indicators affecting resiliency to evaluate these indicators in Ghazvin. Then, by using the AHP, the essential coefficient of each of the criterion and under measure will be characterized in rate of resiliency in across of the earthquake. And in the second phase, an informational layer will be produced for each of the criterion which is indication of that the rate of resiliency of the different sections of the fabric is in accordance with those criterion and ultimately, by stacking these informational layers, a final information layer will be achieved. The final layer is representative of rate of resiliency of different part of fabric in accordance with the parameters of research and it can be as a guide map to rehabilitate those parts that suffer from lack of resiliency in the urban fabrics.
Assessment of Resiliency in Urban Fabrics against Earthquake in Iran (Case Study Ghazvin), Haleh Sadat NABAVI RAZAVI from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Complex
1International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, tehran, Iran; 2university of science and culture, tehran,Iran,
Refineries and related industrial facility have shown vulnerable during the past earthquakes. Damage to such facility may have a great economical impact. Seismic risk assessment of such facility has a great role on making required decisions for management of risk such as retrofit, etc.. This research aims to investigate the seismic vulnerability of each element of a unit of a refinery and their impact on the overall vulnerability of the unit. To this end, seismic risk assessment of equipment and support building as a section of a refinery is under study. In order to analyze seismic behavior of the nonstructural components, equipment have been assumed as block- type. Failure modes are selected based on damages caused by past earthquakes. Rocking and sliding are considered as failure mode of equipment based on each equipment’s support condition and displacement is considered as main cause of failure of pipes. Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration are chosen as earthquake intensity measure. In order to develop seismic fragility curves, created models are subjected to sixty ground motion records, each scaled to multiple levels of intensity to perform incremental dynamic analysis using MATLAB software.
Fragility curves of the oil unit indicate that performance of the entire unit after earthquake depends on the extent of failure in essential and hazardous equipment.
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Complex, Davoud ABDI from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Prepared Schools and Safe Students, a Step Toward Enhancing Urban Resiliency in Tehran
Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO), Iran, Islamic Republic of
Since, Tehran has been located in an area with many active faults that have potential to convert a disaster into a catastrophe, it is required to improve emergency response capacities and to empower citizens and young generation in order to increase preparedness against disasters and to enhance urban resiliency in Tehran.
Schools as a place that students, teachers and other officials have daily long stay in them have to be safe and prepared against possible risks and disasters. That's why safety of schools has been emphasized in HFA and Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction.
In line with this, Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization(TDMMO) affiliated to Tehran Municipality, put Prepared Schools Project at the top of the priorities of annual plans in 2014 and after two years the project implemented in 1000 schools in Tehran. The project has three phases, training personnel and forming disaster management group, risk reduction phase and training students and their families.
Under this project different kinds of trainings have been defined for school's staff prior to formation of the school's disaster management group. Through holding drills target groups will practice what they have learned and complete their experiences in this regard.
In this project in order for risks to be reduced, in addition to recognition of risks, preparation of hazards profile and preparation and implementation of risk reduction programs, completing students' data bank and equipping schools against possible disasters has been done. Training material has been published for students' and their families training. Throughout this article, you will find out more on educational method and material in this project and understand how Tehran schools get prepared against disasters and increase urban resiliency in this city.
Japan Building Vulnerability Characteristics
Karen Clark and Company, United States of America
Catastrophic loss to natural hazards is conventionally modeled through an overlay of four modular components: events (location, size and probability), intensity (adverse effects from the events at the site of specific buildings), vulnerability (estimation of the physical damage to buildings, contents, and downtime for repair), and loss (quantification of the required repair and replacement costs). The first two modules are based on physics, and are usually modeled using scientific information and data. The vulnerability module, however, due to the statistical nature of the building inventory and the probabilistic characteristics of the building performance, is not a physical one, but a mathematical function that links the intensity at a site to the financial loss as result of building characteristics. The backbone of the vulnerability functions are heavily, if not entirely, determined by characteristics that are unique to a region, due to the construction practices, building codes, code enforcement, economy, climate, past history, maintenance, etc. The present study identifies Japan specific characteristics including a wide range of issues – architectural, environmental, construction practice, city planning, building code, insurance payoff, etc. – required to appropriately address vulnerabilities to catastrophes in the region.
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