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Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
WED5.4: Scenarios and models in DRR
Time: Wednesday, 29/Aug/2012: 2:40pm - 4:10pm
Session Chair: Angelika WIRTZ, Munich Reinsurance Company
Session Chair: Bernhard M. HÄMMERLI, University of Lucerne
Location: Seehorn


Session Abstract


A long term building capacity model that prepares for effective disaster relief

Sidney COUPET, Christopher COPPOLA

Doctors United For Haiti (DUFH), United States of America

Doctors United For Haiti (DUFH) is an international non-profit organization that brings healthcare volunteers to Haiti with the main focus of sharing knowledge, skills and relationship building that has developed a network of capable local healthcare providers. This network can easily be used to help coordinate relief during an emergency in Haiti, such as the 2010 earthquake, as well as provide an opportunity for a safe transition from emergency planning to more long-term interventions. DUFH volunteers visit Haiti and work side by side with local Haitian healthcare providers who are working in private practice, government facilities, faith-based organizations, or non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The volunteers and the local Haitian healthcare providers form an integrated team that delivers quality care and identify opportunities for improvement within their respective facilities in Haiti. Relationship building occurs through a symbiotic beneficial experience where the local Haitian healthcare provider is empowered and receives direct support while volunteers receive an international experience that is transferable to their home institutions. These experiences are measured and followed through the DUFH database. DUFH has partnered with local providers/facilities in the north, central and south Haiti where integrated teams deliver primary and preventative services in a decentralized fashion. This would provide a platform to streamline and coordinate disaster relief plans around the country that would allow Haitian nationals to be involved and become a legitimate partner, which has major diplomatic implications. DUFH’s model also encourages Haitian ownership in that it provides an opportunity for local healthcare providers to function and become more competitive in their own country. This provides an opportunity for international aid organizations to safely and confidently transfer power back to Haitians after a disaster in their country. Through DUFH’s model we can prepare Haiti for future disasters while simultaneously strengthening Haiti’s healthcare system.

Using disaster propagation model to study rainfall impact on regional freeway network

Jiayuan YE1, Saini YANG1, Xuechi ZHANG2, Shuai HE1

1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of; 2College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of

Effects can be transferred through linkages among system components when they are not independent, especially in a network system. Failures caused by events at certain components can create cascading failures in a network system like traffic network. In this study, a disaster propagation model is introduced to study cascading effects in a regional traffic network as a new method to study heavy rainfall impact on traffic flow other than microscopic traffic simulation which demands massive calculation time. In this model, freeway segment is treated as a node of the traffic network system, travel time on each segment is a character of the node, and accessibility of one segment to another is the arc between nodes. The rainfall impact on travel time of upper stream segment can be transferred to downstream segment. Through dynamic model of disaster propagation in freeway traffic network with recovery process and transmission time delays considered, multi-scale spatial and temporal rainfall impact on freeway traffic flow and impact transfer through traffic network are studied. Real world data is used in the case study and statistical test is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the disaster propagation model. Relationships between the physical structure of the traffic system and the parameters of the disaster propagation model specified are analyzed. Since extra travel time induces time penalty for logistic industry, how to achieve travel time probability distribution for vehicle routes and evaluate time penalty risk using disaster propagation model with probability of precipitation is discussed as well.

The planning and implementation of earthquake scenario in megacities


Municipality of Mashhad, Iran, Islamic Republic of

The rise in the number, magnitude and the rate of damage caused by earthquakes in recent years and decades at the national and universal level is due to various factors. However, the most significant of these factors are population explosion, change in the use of land, development of residential areas and not being prepared for these disasters. In the process of the comprehensive crisis management, preparedness and prevention are vital in reducing earthquake–related damage. The role of awareness, training and rehearsing is vital before a disaster occurs. In Mashhad, a megacity with a population of 3.000.000 and over 20.000.000 passengers and pilgrims per year, for the first time at the national level, a real earthquake scenario was designed and implemented at great length in the presence of over 5000 forces, 500 pieces of machinery and 2 helicopters. The results of the above mentioned assessed by experts in crisis management indicates a 96.5% success in this regard. This article focuses on analyzing the scenario in question and its applicability to other megacities in the world, by presenting the manner in which it was implemented in Mashhad.

The role of land use planning in the disaster risk reduction

Mehdi NOJAVAN1, Alireza SADEGHIAN1, Mahsa MOHAJERAN2, Abdollah SOBANI3

1university of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2university of Birjand, Iran, Islamic Republic of; 3Department of Hydraulic Engineering, K.N. University ofTechnology, Tehran, Iran

Land-use planning that is carefully designed and rigorously implemented is the most useful approach to managing urban and minimizing associated risks. It is also one of the most challenging to implement because of conflicting values held about land by different segments of the population. In many societies, cultural, social or economic attributes associated with land can form the basis of some of the most contentious issues among people, particularly at local levels. In some places flood plains and volcanic slopes hold economic attractions for inhabitants and in the other places wetlands are drained to become industrial parks or housing estates. Deciding how to use land is demanding enough. It is even more daunting if there are competing views about the role that land should play in reducing collective exposure to risk. The objective of this paper is presenting the necessary criteria for the promotion of quantitative and qualitative land-use planning to confront the negative effects of natural disasters that is a serious threat to us and the future generations. Results showed that in many cases the condition of constructions and location of human settlements are effective in the condition of consequences of natural disasters. So the main subject of this paper is demonstrating and explaining the necessity and the important role of land-use planning in the disaster risk reduction and reducing vulnerability.

Fuel cycle risks imposed by a nuclear growth scenario

Nikolaus ARNOLD, Klaus GUFLER, Steven C. SHOLLY

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Austria, Republic of

To fight climate change and meet future energy demand, new investments in nuclear energy are proposed by several institutions (IEA, IAEA). Even in a post-Fukushima world a constant growth of nuclear energy share can be expected, at least in the developing economies of Asia.

Due to the nature of nuclear energy of binding large resources and covering long time spans, it seems of high interest to have an in depth look at the front- and (back)end developing around a growing nuclear energy share.

At the Institute of Security - and Risk Sciences work is currently carried out, to outline the actual structure of the nuclear fuel cycle and a comparison with the near-term needs and further with long-term needs shall be performed. Having a look at the fuel cycle as a whole, can identify potential bottlenecks and risks in the structure, such as missing capacities for enrichment and fuel fabrication and furthermore show where further investments in the infrastructure are needed in order to support the nuclear growth.

The work targets towards illustrating and connecting the network of the fuel cycle. It covers uranium mining, milling, conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication and fuel distribution to the operators and plants and also discuss the role of reprocessing in that matter. Taking into account that a strong trend towards the expansion of nuclear energy prevails especially in Asia, there will thus be a shift in the priorities of the nuclear industry to this region. It was found that not enough current or planned capacity is developed to support the rapid growth in this region.

The conference contribution shall draw a comprehensive picture fuel supply network and encourage in-depth discussion on reducing future supply risks.

3D-simulation of integrated natural and man-made hazards


1Wapmerr, Switzerland; 2Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, Russian Federation; 3Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation

We describe mathematical models of tsunami propagation and earthquakes. We use numerical simulation for modeling long wave’s propagation, tsunami runup, solving inverse problems, estimation of risk and losses. New mathematical approaches and software allowed arranging database management and the entire destruction scenario visualization. New approaches and strategies as well as mathematical tools and software are to be shown. The long joint investigations by researches of Institute of Mathematical Geophysics and Computational Mathematics SB RAS and specialists from WAPMERR and Informap allow to produce a special theoretical approaches, numerical methods and software for tsunami and earthquake modeling (for example, modeling of propagation and runup of tsunami waves on coastal areas), visualization, risk estimation of tsunami, earthquakes, and other hazards. The algorithms of the operational calculations of the origin and forms of the tsunami source are developed. The system TSS (Tsunami Seismic Source) numerically simulates the source of tsunami and/or earthquake and includes a possibility to solve the direct and the inverse problem [1]. It becomes possible to involve advanced mathematical results to improve models and to increase the resolution of the inverse problems. Using TSS one can construct maps of risks, the online scenario of disasters, estimation of potential damage of buildings and roads. One of the main tools for the numerical modeling is the finite volume method which allows us to achieve stability with respect to insertion errors, as well as the optimum computing speed [2]. The developed software system is planned to create technology "no frost", realizing a steady stream of direct and inverse problems: solving the direct problem, the visualization and comparison with data from sensing, solving the inverse problem (correction of the model parameters). The main objective of further work is the creation of workstation operating emergency duty close to real situations.

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