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WED7.5: Prepardness and early warning
Country risk analysis and assessment by humanitarian organization
Action contre la Faim, France
Humanitarian agencies have to tackle hazards and their consequences. Emergency preparedness phase has to be taken into consideration to be able to anticipate and respond accordingly and timely to safe lives while reducing the risk of vulnerable population. Assessing and analyse risks is to make people think about the impacts of hazard that they might have to cope with.
Inter-model influence diagram analysis using modular elicitation methods for evacuation decision-making
1University of Manchester, United Kingdom; 2Warwick University, United Kingdom
Graphical modelling of decisions has been a common tool used in a wide range of analysis methodologies including decision theory and systems thinking. While a process of comparison between like models exist for graphical models within systems thinking, the same cannot be said for the Influence Diagram (ID). Influence Diagrams (ID) are well suited for inter-model analysis due to the explicit interpretation of graphical items within the decision representation. This paper will present a configurable system of IDs to support strategic decision-making. An example of this configurable system will be shown by utilizing strategic-level influence diagrams to analyse evacuation policies across a flood, nuclear dispersion and terrorist attack scenario. The analytical process of the configurable IDs also allows for an analysis of multiple objectives that exist for evacuation decisions. The results of the inter-model analysis show how contextual elements, structural factors and communications factors of the different hazard scenarios have the widest breadth of influence on identified evacuation criteria across the three disaster scenarios. The identification of these common elements across the disaster scenarios represents a type of multi-hazard analysis that can be used to support strategic decisions for general preparedness in advance of catastrophic disaster events.
The need for developing a culture of earthquake shelters to render early warning useful
Seismologists have developed techniques to estimate location and magnitude of large earthquakes before they have finished rupturing. Based on the resulting early warnings, trains can be stopped and processes in critical facilities may be interrupted before the damaging seismic waves arrive. Many large cities are located so close to active faults that warnings of approaching strong shaking may give only about five seconds lead time. This means that residents cannot make use of early warnings to reach a safe location, unless they install an Earthquake Shelter Unit (ESU) in their apartment. We envision the ESU to be constructed of steel in a corner of a large room in an apartment. If the apartment building is of a type with low to medium resistance to shaking (B to D on the EMS98 classification) and the ESU is of F type (strongest), then we estimate that the probability of survival in case of intensity ten shaking is increased 30,000 to 3,000 fold, respectively. ESUs could become available commercially, as tornado shelters are now, for approximately $5,000, a small price to pay for surviving a disastrous earthquake. ESUs could serve individual families or several families on a single floor in an apartment building, as well as the workforce on each floor of an office building. The early warning could come from a professional organization or the first-arriving, low-amplitude P-wave may be the signal to dash into the earthquake closet before the strong shaking of the S-wave arrives. EPUs will contain survival gear. Falls alarms can easily be tolerated because to step into an EPU located in one’s own apartment is a minimal disturbance of one’s daily routine. We should develop a culture of earthquake awareness and preparedness that includes EPUs.
Seismic prediction and real time early warning make a perfect combination
VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom
The L’Aquila experience highlighted challenges in how we use earthquake Prediction and Early Warnings information. It is suggested that the fault lays with the fact that there has been an attempt to use 'Prediction' as ‘Real Time Early Warning’, generating uncertainties of scale and timings plus confused decisions and messaging by Governments and media.
Human preparedness and response to risk: a neuroscience perspective
1Rider University, United States of America; 2University of Jyväskylä & ETS
Neuroscience, the study of the nervous system, is a field of research that is being used increasingly to better understand the underlying processes of human behavior in a variety of contexts. Today, it is not uncommon to see news stories or research articles about the application of neuroscience to areas including economics, politics and marketing, yet a literature survey reveals little focus on how neuroscience may better help understand human response and behavior in disasters. The nervous system of humans and animals includes what can be described as hard-wired circuits and brain regions that respond to sensory inputs and effect response(s). This poster introduces the field of neuroscience and specific aspects of the nervous system that can play a role in human response to risks. The innate capabilities and capacities of the human nervous system to respond to threatening situations, expressed fundamentally in the “fight or flight” response, will be described. The poster introduces a model of how these innate capabilities may be marshaled in conjunction with advances in training and messaging to lead to improved human response to risks and hazards.
A seismic swarm: a social lab to promote earthquake preparedness
Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, FUNVISIS, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of
We present the experiences of a community located in an active seismic region in western Venezuela during a seismic swarm that lasted four days with 35 events registered by the Venezuelan Seismological Network in January 2011. This was an unique occasion to study the general reaction and concern of an entire community that was moved from a previous disaster which occurred in Venezuela in 1999 and affected dramatically to Vargas state during the torrential rain that generated a disaster zone. The new home of this community is a settlement where the swarm was widely felt. We observed the positive impact of the preventive training programs and public awareness campaigns in short time and how the population was actively involved in their process of adaptation in a region with a potential seismic hazard.
Development of a daily fire danger system
1University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, Republic of; 2Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics,Austria
Best practices and new technologies in fire detection and suppression
Fire Watch international AG, Switzerland
Based on the pilot project at the Department “Fire Department Of Bouches-du-Rhône“ it is visible how to integarte such equipment effective and reliable into a powerful Disaster Management system. In this region, each year an area of approximately 30’000 ha is burned.