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Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Session
WED7.7: Climate change adaptation & disaster risk reduction
Time: Wednesday, 29/Aug/2012: 6:55pm - 8:00pm

Poster Session


Presentations

An integrated approach to delineation of eco-climatic zones in Northern Nigeria

Aishetu ABDULKADIR1, Usman MUHAMMAD TSOWA1, Haliru Ayuba SHABA2, Abubakar SADAUKI1

1Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria.; 2Space Application, National Space Research and Development Agency (NSRDA), PMB 437, Garki Abuja, Nigeria

The potential impact of climate change, rainfall variability patterns and the dynamic hydrologic regimes make it imperative that the broad eco-climatic zones could have changed. Though this process has been apparent since the 1969 -1973 Sahelian drought, its extent and actual impact on eco-climatic zonation was left unascertained with obvious implications for general planning. To date, requisite data have not been collated and analyzed to document current changes taking place. The present study used derived eco-climatic parameters (1950-2006); moisture quality index, onset and cessation dates, hydrologic growing season, Aridity Index and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index. These were integrating using GIS techniques to provide fundamental basis for identifying, delimiting and describing the major types of eco-climatic conditions in quantitative time. The overlay was hinged on a theoretical basis which holds the values of the Aridity index, cessation, hydrologic growing season and vegetation index directly proportional to eco-climatic zones while those for onset and MQI are inversely proportional to the quantitative character of the eco-climatic zones. The quantitatively derived eco-climatic index and related maps identified five eco-climatic zones; Wet, Humid, Sub-humid, Dry Sub-humid and Semi/Arid as against, the three classic regional climatic zones; Tropical Hinterland, Tropical Continental and High Plateau zones. The eco-climatic maps further unveil progressive transformation or southwards shifts in the boundaries of the regional climatic zones; Tropical Continental North to Semi-arid/Arid and Dry Sub-humid eco-climatic condition, Tropical Hinterland shows diversified levels of humidity; Dry sub-humid, Sub-humid, Humid and Wet. By implication, the identified changes do suggest shifts in regional circulation system. This may point to the inevitability of episodic drought and crop failure in the belt. Accurate delineation of the current eco-climatic zones provides adequate information needed to achieve food security and sustainability of the physical environment that is fundamental to disaster risk reduction in sub-Saharan Africa.


Natural disasters and climate change: safe school design and construction

Alida SALEH

Exp Services Inc., Canada

The vulnerability of children due to earthquakes is expected to increase, as a result of the inability of structures to effectively withstand these destructive forces and to protect its occupants. Schools built world-wide routinely collapse in earthquakes due to preventable errors in design and construction, causing predictable, intolerable, and catastrophic injuries and loss of lives. The lives of thousands of children are at risk in the event of an earthquake. Today, earthquake experts have put out a warning, that the devastating quake that struck Haiti in January 2010 could be the first of several to occur globally. Given the large number of schools around the globe, earthquakes could result in millions of dollars in damages to buildings, and the loss of thousands of children’s lives. Costs associated with such natural disasters are difficult to quantify but have a profound impact on those who undergo such events. Confronting these risks, creatively and urgently, is nothing short of a moral imperative. It is apparent today that both the ‘green movement’ and the need to improve the seismic safety of school structures are gaining momentum on a global scale. The relevance of sustainable design principles, which entails reducing overall energy and water consumption, using resource efficient building materials, incorporating siting and construction management strategies, and reducing the overall ecological footprint of the building through responsible development, use, and eventual disposal of the structure, to seismic design principles of schools and its impact on occupant health will be examined. Facilitating such synergies would not only decrease the structures environmental impact and the life-safety risks of children at school but would also decrease their health-safety risks. This presentation will discuss 2 case studies from schools in British Columbia, Canada which used these strategies, through which creative solutions, priorities, timeframes and resources were identified.


Soil loss and dust release in farmland during extreme dust storms in China

Yanli LU1,2

1IHDP-IRGP, China, People's Republic of; 2Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of

Farmland has strong potential of releasing dust during dust storm weather occurrence. This study is to monitor the dynamic process of soil loss and dust release on farmland during extreme dust storms in Taipusiqi, China. A soil loss and dust release model is established based on a tunnel experiment. The total amount of soil loss and dust released farmland in 2000 was 2478.9 t/km2 and 1655.3 t/ km2. Soil loss and dust released in spring was far more than those in other seasons. Duration of soil erosion was 15 hours during a dust storm event on 21-23 March 2000. Total amount of soil loss and dust released was 176.5 t/km2 and 117.9 t/km2,accounting for 18.0% and 17.7% of annual amount. On 6-9 April soil erosion lasted for 29.2 hours. Total amount of soil loss and dust released was 446.3 t/km2 and 292.3 t/km2,accounting for 18.0% and 17.7% of annual amount.


Disaster management and linkages with climate change adaptation

Manash Ronjan BHADRA, NNM Mujibuddaula Sardar Kanak KANAK, Rabiul ISLAM

Shusamaj Foundation, Bangladesh, People's Republic of

Traditionally, disasters in Bangladesh and in South East Asia have been compounded by climatic factors. Being under the monsoon regime, the country has faced frequent floods, droughts and consequent famines. However, the recent developments in the fields of disaster management and climate change have overlooked these obvious links and two separate institutional structures have evolved to service climate change and disasters. From being viewed as a response mechanism at the end of the impact cycle, adaptation is now identified as a process that builds the resilience of communities to the impacts of climate change and variability and thus enhances the process of sustainable development. This has strengthened the rationale for ”mainstreaming” adaptation into development processes. This paper develops an approach that looks at institutional structures and interfaces as a way of identifying the possibilities and actions for mainstreaming climate change adaptation in the disaster management context. It argues that climate change adaptation and disaster management frameworks have thematic as well as institutional linkages. Both domains address similar issues and similar sets of actors, yet currently disaster management is further evolved and has a stronger legislative base. Yet in Bangladesh, as in many other countries, parallel structures exist for climate adaptation and for disaster management and mean similar sets of stakeholders remain in isolation. By mapping out institutional structures and interfaces, the paper highlights possible entry points for climate adaptation into disaster management structures in Bangladesh and South East Asia. Lessons from Bangladesh and in South East Asia can have wider applications as many other countries share the common challenge of deciding how to best link the two parallel tracks for tackling climate adaptation and disaster management.


Integrated Flood Management in the context of climate change: case study Vietnam

Martijn Floris VAN STAVEREN

Wageningen UR, Netherlands, Kingdom of the

Research has indicated that climate patterns are changing. For some regions, this could lead to increased rainfall both in quantity and intensity, which in turn increase risk on floods. In Vietnam, farming communities are most exposed to flood risk as they live either close to rivers or in mountainous regions, where flash floods occur. Integrated Flood Management IFM is a relatively new concept in the field of flood risk management. It is seen as a component of integrated water resources management, but focuses strongly on flood management issues. It promotes an integrated approach towards flood management, and aims at maximizing the net benefits from flood plains and minimizing loss of life from flooding. Because large-scale built protection measures are not seen as the most appropriate measures anymore, more flexible approaches towards flooding are promising developments for the future.However, IFM is not limited to managing the flood hazard itself. Other factors can contribute to or mitigate the risk of a flood disaster. Vulnerability, capacity and adaptation characteristics of communities are important components in risk definition and require similar attention in terms of analyzing threats and opportunities for improvement. The disaster risk index is applied to conduct a quantitative flood risk assessment, within the existing and projected climate change scenario.

It is stressed that although the hazard component of flooding is something we cannot do much about, many opportunities are available in the fields of exposure and vulnerability reduction, and with the increase of community capacity. An integrated approach towards flooding is successful because with a coordinated management, measures can be developed that contribute to more than one sector alone. IFM acknowledges the complex conditions in which risks are shaped, and includes long-term coordinated planning whereby sustainability issues in relation with climate change are approached.


Fire risk and interactions with other natural hazards under the impact of climate change in Austria

Alexander Duran ARPACI1, H. VACIK1, O. SASS2, R. SAILER2

1University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, Republic of; 2University of Insbruck

Global warming could cause increasing danger of wildfires which could have long-lasting consequences on woodland ecosystems in Austria. The protective effect of forests can be severely reduced by fire, leading to natural hazards such as avalanches and rock fall. Nevertheless, data on wildfire frequency and distribution is currently still sparse and incomplete for Austria, and long-lasting post fire degradation under adverse preconditions (e.g. very steep slopes) is a possible phenomenon which is currently widely neglected. In our project FIRIA we intend to compile historical wildfire data including information on fuel loads, fire weather indices (FWI) and recovery. Thereby we aim at assessing the governing climatic and socio-economic factors of forest fire distribution including fire vulnerability of different woodland communities and will model and display the spatial distribution of currently fire-prone areas in Tyrol. Furthermore, we will assess the impact of climate change on the distribution and frequency of fires. Finally, we will locate areas of enhanced natural hazards after deforestation by wildfire and infrastructure at risk using process models, and work out a catalogue of possible countermeasures.


Impacts of climate change in geographically isolated areas: community perception from riverine islands of south-central and northern Bangladesh

Mohammed Abdul BATEN1,2, Lubna SEAL2

1Independent University Bangladesh,; 2Unnayan Onneshan, Bangladesh

Geographic isolation creates a situation where life and livelihood of riverine island (charland) is entirely dependent on weather that makes the charland people most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to address the challenges posed by climate change in northern and south-central Bangladesh, the study has focused on the people’s perception of Gaibandha, Sirajgonj and Shariatpur for exploring the magnitude and impacts of different hazards namely flood, riverbank erosion, salinity intrusion, water scarcity in agriculture production. The study has revealed that all the areas experience flood, riverbank erosion and water scarcity periodically, but magnitude of impacts varies depending on locality, which is also evident from people’s response. Peoples of Gaibandha identified flood as the most devastating disaster for agricultural production, whereas riverbank erosion appeared as the most commanding peril in Kazipur upazila of Sirajgonj district. Moreover, water scarcity has been becoming a significant problem for study areas that results from a low flow condition of surface water due to higher rate of evaporation and withdrawal of water by upstream neighboring country. In addition, agriculture of Gosairhat upazila of Shariatpur, an interior coast, started experiencing salinity in dry season, though still not at the threatening level, will be detrimental in future due to sea level rise. The combined impacts of climatic hazards on agricultural production results into reduced crop production, changed crop calendar, and crop variety and consequently exert pressure on livelihood and income of the people. The poor, especially the small and subsistence farmers are hit the hardest in most of the cases as they directly involve in food production and possess low withstand capacity in the altered situation when food production is hampered.


Preparedness arising from vulnerability and the value of resilience during the latest climate change episode in Zanzibar

Adolfo Caridade MASCARENHAS

LINKS Trust Fund, Tanzania, United Republic of

For several reasons islands have a tendency to be relatively more vulnerable to natural disasters including those brought about by factors associated with climate change. In recent years Zanzibar has joined pioneer islands which first clamored more than three decades ago in the United Nations for collective action to meet the threat of climate change. The vulnerability of the archipelago of Zanzibar and Pemba stem from its size, low elevation, droughts, floods and its location on the path of extreme weather events. Current generalized approaches in climate change have not helped much. Despite past climate change episodes, Zanzibar has coped and indeed has a long history of being a centre of commerce, trade, and development.

Less attention has been paid to resilience as a strategic approach. Conceptually,such an approach which takes in the scientific and cultural milieu, is broadly participatory and enabling in nature could be an important component in even changing the mind set about the anticipated problems and lead to optional solutions There is a mistaken belief that climate change problems can be tackled by a sectored approach. Its scientific constituents mean paying attention in an integrated way to incorporate micro and macro components of the climatic elements including temperature, wind, rain and other components..

Departing from the conventional hype about “climate change” this presentation moves away from the blame game. This means attempting to use more knowledge, science and experience to make problems into relevant solutions. For instance if :"climatic components" have been used for thousands of years could they be made relevant again ? Based on scientific and cultural clues, there is reason to be optimistic "resources" have to be looked anew. With its past cosmopolitan approaches, a sustainable future is possible to bring socioeconomic development.


Recent climate change in Iran – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature

Sina MALLAH NOWKANDEH, Ali ZARE, Hossein Ali BAHRAMI, Pourya TAVAKOLI, Soudabeh KHODABAKHSHI

Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Climate encompasses the statistics of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation, atmospheric particle count and other meteorological elemental measurements in a given region over long periods. Climate can be contrasted to weather, which is the present condition of these elements and their variations over shorter periods.In this paper temperature series of Iran were statistically analyzed in order to answer the question whetherrecent climate change can be proved for Iran; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The meteorological datawere collected within 50 years period from 5 synoptic stations located in Fars province of Iran. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: AOGCM, Change Factor including the trend-to-noise-ratio as measure of significance, HADCM3 and Simple Kridging model. According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Iran is clearly shown for temperature over 4 periods: past, middle future, near future and distant future. Annual minimum temperature increased at all scenarios from 1.4 (A2 scenario) to 3.8 (A1 Scenario), but annual maximum temperature increased 1.2 for all scenarios. The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976–2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for central part of the region of interest.


CDM, dam and disaster management of Climate Change

Seyed Abolfazl MOHAMMADI1, Mahmood AFSOUS2, Hesam EBRAHIMZADEH3, Bamshad HOUSHYANI4

1Tehran University , Sazehpardazi iran consulting engineering Co., Iran, Islamic Republic of; 2Sazehpardazi iran consulting engineering Co; 3Rahbord Energy Design &Development Eng. Co.; 4Climate Focus

Climate Change is believed to become one of the causes of many environmental and social crisis. Global warming has recently become a known expression in world’s environmental and sustainable development discussions for its scientifically proven Greenhouse Gas (GHG) impacts. The growing amount of global GHG emissions causes the average earth temperature to raise which may have irreversible impacts on world’s micro and macro climate regimes which in return will cause immense social and environmental impacts. This growing concern was the cause of suggesting three alternatives for controlling greenhouse gases in the 3th convention of Climate Change, which are as follows: 1) Clean development mechanism; 2) Joint implementation and 3) International emission trading. Based on this, any project carried out under the confirmation of authorities in terms of reducing and controlling GHG (in the form of above mentioned alternatives), will be supported by UNFCCC. Then new ideas were suggested in the given field, which are blended with human life and industrial developments. These developments necessitates consuming energy which in turn causes an increase in the amount of GHG and has its own environmental consequences. If an appropriate alternative for producing this kind of energy will be found, there’ll be a reduction in its destructive consequences of environmental aspect. Hence, a new management of energy sources toward a stable environment has been considered. one of the sources of producing clean energy is hydropower plant, Which is being a renewable resource and has the least environmental consequences. in other words, implementing a clean development mechanism in this type of projects along with producing a considerable amount of energy, results in controlling the emission of GHG. In this paper, we considered the crisis of emission of GHG and its environmental consequences, then we described the CMD projects concerning dam, hydropower plant and the process and results involved.


Monitoring of severe weather phenomena for the reduction of damage caused by them on the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Tatyana Yurevna SMIRNOVA

Research Hydrometeorological Institute (NIGMI), Uzbekistan, Republic of

The territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan is accessible for the intrusion of cold air masses from the north and cut by the mountain barrier from the countries with mild climate in the south. The country in general is characterized by continental climate which is not typical to its southern position: very hot summers and cold winters, hot days are followed by cold nights. However, due to this specific topographic conditions the areas with the local climatic features are formed. All sectors of the national economy are subjected to substantial effects of the complex climate of Central Asia. Severe winters cause dangers for the cattle breeding on distant pastures. Summer heat is sweltering for the human system. Thunderstorms and hail cause damage to the cotton fields, vineyards, mulberry plantations; showers and mudflows can wash out not only crops but whole villages. Change of air temperature to 10°C and more during a day is attributed to the severe weather phenomena. Both sudden cooling and sudden warming cause serious danger to certain sectors of national economy of the Republic. Sudden spring cooling can cause full or partial crush of agricultural crops and substantial decrease in crop yield capacity. Sudden warming causes mudflows and intensive snow melt. These phenomena lead to damage of transport infrastructure by flooding roads and destroying bridges. Thus, sudden changes of air temperature reduce the firmness of metal constructions and construction works. All severe weather phenomena require permanent monitoring. Taking into account these phenomena and the adoption of adaptive measures facilitating the decrease or reduction of the caused damage is necessary for the provision of a functioning and the sustainable development of agriculture and industry of the Republic.



 
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