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Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Session
TUE7.2: Integrated seismic risk management
Time: Tuesday, 28/Aug/2012: 6:10pm - 7:30pm

Poster Session


Presentations

The first specialized maneuver of water and wastewater industry of Tehran at earthquake crisis

Mohammd PARVARESH1, Mohammad REZA AHMAD NASAB2, Hamid REZA SHARIF VAGHEFI3, Ahamd ABPARVAR4, Farzam SHEYBANY5

1Director Manager in Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Tehran, Iran; 2Management in department of crises management in Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Tehran,Iran; 3Responsible experts in Department of crisis management in Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Tehran, Iran; 4Retrofitting manager in Department of crisis management in Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Tehran, Iran; 5Expert in crisis management in Department of crisis management in Tehran Province water & wastewater co., Tehran, Iran

Nowadays natural disaster such as earthquake in different parts of the world made governments and responsible organizations to think of efficient policies in order to reduce the casualties and losses.

Iran as a country which is located in earthquake zone experienced devastating earthquakes in its history. The capital city Tehran inhabited about 9.5 m. residents 7m of which is in danger in any moment.

Although a number of researches conducted on earthquake crisis management in Tehran, providing drinking water after earthquake was not considered properly. There was always a major concern that if a powerful earthquake happens, it might damage the pipe lines and connections and stop the water distribution.

The first specialized maneuver of water and wastewater industry of Iran regarding handling the earthquake crisis was carried out for a better cooperation with Esfahan province as manager of the crisis and Gilan, Mazandaran, Markazi, Semnan, Ghazvin and Qum (neighboring provinces) as collaborators.

Based on a 7.2 Richter scale earthquake scenario, in north and north-east of Tehran considering the severity of disaster the fifth water treatment plant of Tehran with capacity of 5m3/s will be out of work. Chlorine cylinder (1000Kg) of the second water treatment plant of Tehran with capacity of 8m3/s will leak. Some of the wells will be destroyed, one of the main water pipe lines will break down, and several other pipe lines will be damaged. These parts will be repaired and replaced by collaborating provinces with the help of fire department, emergency center, police station and NGOs. This maneuver was carried out in September 2010 as the first experience in the region and country in 72 hours.

As a result the readiness of management team in water organization of Tehran against natural disaster was tested and increased.


Disaster Management Bases Site Selection Using GIS in Tehran, Iran

Sakineh MOHAMMADI, Belal NOROOZI, Abdollah MOZAFARI

Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO), Iran, Islamic Republic of

One of strategies implementations for emergency management in natural disasters are providing or making spaces that resist against disasters, particularly earthquakes. These spaces will use in disaster events in each district based on their location in order storing and supplying the emergency and urgent needs and also working as disaster management headquarters in this situations.

The strategic goal for establishing these centers in Tehran, are to provide proper operational and tactical base for the prevention, preparedness and response measures, especially in the various crises of natural disaster like an earthquake and also providing emergency settlement for people in Emergency situation.

Since 2011 and in order to improve crisis management system, Tehran Disaster Mitigation & Management Organization has planned to increase the bases all over Tehran to 374 and one for each district (Mahalleh). These bases built to work with regard to crisis management in times of emergency and use of educational and athletic application in normal conditions.

GIS capability in preparation and analyze of data used in implementation of this project (plan) and with benefit of fuzzy logic-based multi-parameter analysis, an appropriate model for optimum location of bases with regard to the missions and their performances are presented.

In this paper, how to collect and prepare the required information, principles, weighting to each criterion and selection of appropriate options for the construction of support bases are indicated.


Development of methodology for post-earthquake reconstruction planning of lifelines

Hossein SABAGHZADEH1, Milad ZAMANIFAR2

1Structural Engineering Master of Science and Technology University of Mazandaran, Iran; 2South branch of Tehran Azad University, Iran, Islamic Republic of

Earthquake is one of the main factors of disorder and destruction in lifelines performance. Therefore any delay in arteries’ reconstruction or recovery without considering the priority of lifelines integrity may lead to serious structural damage and danger to affected communities.

This article provides the methodology for calculating lifelines priority after an earthquake by indicating each lifeline function importance and damage level according the post-event inspection. The methodology represented in this article is done by defining functions, mathematical relations based on numerical calculations and also the preparation of accurate forms and check lists for examining the level of damage in lifelines. Lifelines coding method, the importance function of arteries at lifelines network and damage evaluation of components, are main topics that have been described. In addition, the analyze method in the critical situation has been indicated by defining significant coefficient for each element and finally, reconstruction prioritization of lifelines component regarding the imposed damage and their importance has been elaborated on. Result is going to provide a comprehensive methodology for reconstruction planning which helps to identify critical situations quickly and efficiently while also reducing reconstruction costs and time.


Use of crowdsourcing in post-disaster damage assessment

Pablo VILLANUEVA HOLM-NIELSEN

ALECTIA / DTU, Denmark, Kingdom of

In a disaster an effective response requires a reliable damage assessment. Often this is done based on satellite images. In the case of the Haiti earthquake several organizations shared the task of doing a rapid satellite-based damage assessment of all the buildings in Port-au-Prince. These reported damages where later compared to a field assessment, which showed that the overall accuracy of the damage assessment was 61%. This result calls for an improvement in rapid damage assessment done based on satellite images.

The present study explores the area of crowdsourcing in order to aid the damage assessment efforts. At present there are a large number of remote sensors that could be used by the crowds in a disaster situation. At the same time there are a number of experts around the world that are willing to use some of their spare time to help during the response of a disaster, by performing useful tasks from their home.

In this study, crowdsourcing has been tested and found effective for damage assessment in a disaster situation such as the earthquake of Haiti in 2010. Pictures of damaged houses were assessed by two groups of crowds: a non-expert crowd and also by construction experts. The results of these crowdsourcing efforts were then compared to the satellite-based assessment and to the final field assessment.

Comparing the different accuracies, the results indicate that crowdsourcing would produce an effective assessment in a large-scale disaster. The crowdsourcing assessment had an accuracy of 73%, which could be improved up to 86% depending on the dataset. The time taken to perform this assessment was not larger than in the satellite-based case. The main types of errors that are avoided by crowdsourcing are presented along with suggestions for further improvement of the system and suggestions for further research.


Evaluation of natural period depending on the structure system

Jin_Seon KIM

National Disaster Management Institute, Korea, Republic of

Earthquake Recovery Plans ACT performed installation project of seismic accelerometer for public buildings in South Korea. Korean representative architecture is masonry buildings and wooden constructions. This study introduces to structure safety assessment using natural frequency and performs static tests on specimens. The result is that more damage is caused an increase in natural frequency of structue.


Housing reconstruction policies and socio-spatial transformation of the built environment in old fabric of earthquake-affected cities

Mojgan TAHERI TAFTI

The University of Melbourne, Australia

This study discusses the ramifications of housing reconstruction policies and urban planning considerations on socio-spatial transformations of two neighbourhoods within the old fabric of cities affected by earthquakes. The research takes place in two small-sized historical cities of Bam in Iran and Bhuj in India affected by earthquakes in 2003 and 2001 respectively. The first part of the study provides an examination of housing compensation and reconstruction strategy in both cities. This part also compares the implications of the new urban development plans, which entailed vulnerability reduction considerations, on housing reconstruction within the old fabric of these cities. The second part of the poster illustrates and maps the socio-spatial transformation of these two neighbourhoods eight and ten years after the earthquake compared to their ex-ante condition. This discussion encompasses a variety of aspects of such transformation including the physical manifestation of changes in the built environment such as changes in density, building forms, public spaces, and land use, as well as social aspects such as changes in demographic characteristics of the residents of these neighbourhoods. These changes are analysed in the light of different factors including earthquake impacts on physical and human assets as well as land and housing price trends which in interaction with recovery policies can provide explanations for the dynamic processes of transformation in these neighbourhoods. It is discussed why after eight and ten years from the earthquakes, the reconstruction of the old fabric of these cities remains unfinished. The study concludes with a suggestion that over-emphasizing of urban plans on creating a more earthquake-resistant built environment may impinge upon the different aspects of life in affected neighbourhoods, including housing affordability, social fabric and outdoor activities in urban spaces.


Preliminary analysis of the 1985 Mexican earthquake by applying the Management Oversight and Risk Tree

Rafael ALVARADO-CORONA, Jaime SANTOS-REYES, Cinthya Ivonne MOTA-HERNANDEZ

UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DEL ESTADO DE MÉXICO, Mexico

Throughout history, natural disasters have exerted a heavy toll of death and suffering and are increasing alarmingly worldwide. Given this, natural disasters present a great challenge to society today concerning how they are to be mitigated so as to produce an acceptable risk is a question which has come to the fore in dramatic ways recently. This paper presents some preliminary results of the analysis of the Mexican earthquake that occurred in september 1985, by applying the Management Oversight Risk Tree (MORT) model. The key questions that have been addressed are: what can be learnt from earthquakes? Can MORT be applied to the analysis of natural disasters? The MORT may be regarded as a structured checklist in the form of a complex fault tree model that is intended to ensure that all aspects of an organization’s management are looked into when assessing the possible causes of an incident. The MORT model has been applied extensively to the analysis of accident/incidents that have occurred in industries, such as the oil and gas, nuclear, aviation, etc. It may be argued that the model has the potentiality to be applied to the analysis of natural disasters such as earthquakes. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis lessons can be learnt so that the impact of natural disasters such as the Mexican earthquake can be mitigated in the future.


Lessons learned from massive damage assessment and reconstruction strategies in 2010 Haiti earthquake

Kit H. MIYAMOTO, Amir S.J. GILANI

Miyamoto International, United States of America

Rapid damage assessment and economical and easily implemented reconstruction by national engineers and contractors are critical components of disaster response and recovery. Also, it is critical to engage the commercial sector. Application of such methods allows for an effective recovery of urban areas following major disasters. This methodology was applied to Haiti following the January 2010 earthquake. This M 7.0 earthquake disaster caused over 200,000 deaths, affected 3 million people, and damaged or collapsed over 200,000 structures. An unprecedented earthquake damage assessment by a joint operation of the Haitian Ministry of Public Works, the UNOPS, the Pan American Development Foundation, and Miyamoto International was undertaken with the following primary goals: (1) rapid safety assessment, (2) reconstruction database development including debris assessment and damage repair assessment and (3) capacity building of Haitian engineers. As part of this program, GPS based geo-coordinated data collection technique was implemented. Over 400,000 buildings had been assessed by 600 national engineers. This allowed for return of 500,000 people to safe houses. This program was further evolved to address over 120,000 damaged buildings. Over 10,000 buildings have been rapidly repaired per international standard by Haitian micro-contractors. This program is not only providing safe houses but capacity building of commercial and public sectors. Economical development in the post disaster is critical. This program will be further developed to address the post disaster recovery and reconstruction in Haiti and other post conflict and disaster situations.


Optimal selection of recovery strategies after earthquakes, considering interdependencies of infrastructures using dynamic Leontief Input-Output Model

Sanam MOGHIMI, Babak OMIDVAR, Mehrdad NAZARIHA, S.Mostafa MOUSAVI

University of Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of

Natural disasters and their impacts on human’s life, is one of the most important concerns of our societies. Infrastructures such as power systems, water distribution systems, transportations, communications and gas networks are among the main components of urban environment. There are interdependencies among infrastructures and their subsectors. Infrastructures performance in disasters have significant role in reaching to a disaster resilient society. The uncertainty in Vulnerability assessment of these lifelines in one hand and the lack of proper planning for recovery and selection of optimized strategies for different sectors on the other hand, may results in a great loss.

Iran is located in a seismic active zone and has always been faced devastating earthquakes. Tehran, the capital of Iran, is at risk, since it sits on major active faults and suffers from seismic activities. However, poor construction practices, and having large population, makes Tehran more vulnerable to earthquakes. Accordingly, it becomes necessary to have proper recovery plan beforehand.

In short, we tried to find out the economic effect of infrastructures’ interdependencies using Leontief Input-Output Model based on the matrix of value of commodity flow among different sectors. Tehran is chosen as a case study. By minimizing the total economic loss, sensitivity to economic loss parameters and cost of implementation of strategies, the best scenario is selected for the recovery strategy. This selection is based on initial inoperability, recovery time and demand perturbation after earthquake. The proposed algorithm may be applied in different cities to find out the optimal recovery strategy.


Consciousness and knowledge of disaster reduction helps reduction of earthquake disaster

Yongnian HE

China Earthquake Administration, China, People's Republic of

The M=8.0 earthquake occurred in Wenchuan region, Sichuan Province of China on May 12, 2008. The event caused 69,277 persons died and 17,923 persons missed, the economic lose reached RMB 845,100 m Yuan (roughly amount to 120,000 m US dollars).The sudden-occurrence and serious result of earthquakes make the disaster reduction more difficulty. People are usually frightened at mention of an earthquake. However, many earthquake cases tell us that the earthquake disaster may be effectively reduced with help of consciousness and knowledge of disaster reduction, which has been proved by several cases, occurred in the above-mentioned Whenchuan earthquake.Quite a few schools in Wenchuan earthquake region, the students and teachers were safe after the earthquake due to the pre-earthquake knowledge education of earthquake disaster prevention and emergency evacuation drilling. Therefore, although the serious damage of collapse of those houses and dormitories, the students and teachers were able safely evacuated. For example, Sangzao middle school in Anxian county, Liuhan Hope primary school in Beichuan county, Huayuanlu junior high school in Jiangyou city, Fifth high school and Xiaoquan high school in Deyang city and so on, totally more than 20,000 students and teachers were basically not injured or died.Besides, there is a significant case. A child care center in Nanba town, in which there were three classes: younger class, middle class and older class. The teacher of middle class, Ms Wang Xingbi has experienced the earthquake when she was young, so she usually organized the children play a game, called “quickly run away when earthquake comes”. Whenchuan earthquake occurred unexpectedly, the children in this class quickly evacuated according to the path, by which the children played the game. So no injured and no died. However, the 21 children in older class died, and 35 children in younger class died by collapse of the house.


Path selection model and algorithm for emergency evacuation during earthquake disaster

Fuyu HU, Wei XU

Beijing Normal University, China, People's Republic of

Effective disaster management can greatly reduce damages, losses and casualties from natural disasters. Emergency evaluation is one of the fundamental problems of disaster management, in which path selection from disaster affected areas to shelters is a very critical aspect. Suitable path selection scheme can improve the speed of emergency evacuation so as to raise the survival rate in disaster affected areas. It is not sophisticated enough to solve the real path selection problem during a disaster if only considering to minimizing total travel distance as did in most existing path selection models. In the paper, we investigated the path selection problem for emergency evacuation during the earthquake disaster. A multi-objective model has been built to select the optimal paths from disaster affected areas to shelters nearby. The objectives of the model are to both minimize total travel distance and to minimize total path risk. To fit the bi-objectives model built in this paper, we use the modified popular and effective algorithms—Dijkstra algorithm by adding a multi-objective strategy to find the shortest evacuation path . The path selection model and algorithm proposed in the paper have been successfully applied to the emergency evacuation in a scenario earthquake disaster in the Chaoyang District of Beijing, China. The result illustrates that the model and algorithm is feasible and effective.


Caracas Seismological Museum: A space to develop an interactive experience between the community and the Venezuelan seismic culture.

Daniel MORENO, Cristobal GRIMAN, Wilmer MARIN, Carolina GRANADO

Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, FUNVISIS, Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of

Caracas is a city with a moderate seismic hazard. The last damaging earthquake occurred in 1967. It was a seismic event with magnitude 6.3. Since this is an important and crowded city, there is a fundamental fact to favor a policy that promotes the creation of a scientific popularization center having as a prime mission to spread knowledge about earth sciences, particularly seismology. Another aspect of this main purpose is to educate people about how to protect themselves in case of a natural seismic event occurrence. We present the characteristics and its social impact of an effort to create in Caracas an open and alive space able to transform a visit into a meaningful experience; stimulating the interest in the natural history, the singular geological features of the Earth, Venezuelan tectonics and promoting dialogue and reflection among the visitors as participants in a reality where awareness about the geological risk is a need to preserve live and ensure a right attitude towards a decrease of vulnerability among the population. One of the highlights of this project was to recover and to restore an old construction and its surrounding area as well as a diverse set of obsolete seismic instruments. An important goal has been to design a playful and recreational spot to learn about seismic culture and vulnerability reduction with the community as a protagonist of their own social evolution by means of bolstering local resilience and improving earthquake preparedness.


The seismic vulnerability base on macroeconomic indicators and risk evaluation in Asia

Xiaoqing WANG1, Xiaoxiang YUAN1, Xiang DING1, Zhi LI2

1Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China, People's Republic of; 2Liaoning Earthquake Administration, Shenyang, China, People's Republic of

The seismic vulnerability analyses based on the buildings stocks have used widely in the world. As the great change of building distribution is happening in the world, especially in the developing countries, it is often facing the difficulties of data updating for the vulnerability assessment. On the other hand, there exists difference between the losses due to structural damage (although it is the major part) and the whole earthquake losses. Chen et al (1998) developed a method to assess the global seismic loss based on macroeconomic indicators. The method is easy to update the data needed for risk assessment and then has widely been used in global (Chen Q. et al, 1999), country (Wang X. et al 2004) or urban level (Teramo A., 2005; Liu J. et al, 2006). But because of the lack of empirical seismic vulnerability relationship in higher seismic intensity (MMI IX or greater) area, there exists market uncertainty for the seismic risk assessment in the area. Wang X. et al (2011) have developed a new method to determine statistically the empirical seismic vulnerability relationship based on the macroeconomic indicators in the MMI VI-XI areas.

The paper introduces the new method to determine the seismic vulnerability model (SVM) in the case that the only total loss and the seismic intensity map are known. An empirical SVM determined by using the catastrophe earthquakes in Asia since 1970. The seismic risk in the 10 key research regions in Asia in the next 10 years has also estimated and introduced in the paper combined with researches such as the estimation of possible location and magnitude of the potential larger earthquakes (Ms>=7.0), the distribution exposure data such population and GDP et al. The method and results will be discussed in the paper.


Utilization plan of seismic acceleration monitoring data

Ki Jong PARK

National Disaster Management Institute Ministry of Public Administration and Socurity, Korea, Republic of

Earthquakes in the long run, there are no earthquakes that occur all over the world. Rapid economic growth is that should be set proper seismic design of domestic occured earquake because dense urban and main structures increase damage. Current Korean peninsula are not damaged but prepare on earthquake that may be come in the future. By many changing seismic wave occurred from source, seismic wave be attenuated or amplified due to geologic heterogeneity. This study is using for free field seismic accleration data on the free field, revision of national seismic harazd map, ground motion dynamic characteristics, study on the verification of seismic design parameters. Suitable for Korea earthquake measured operate an integrated system of data analysis and information free field earthquake plan was to take advantage of the present. 1. PGA major stations nationwide earthquake response spectra contour maps created and proposed. 2. Through the analysis of the acceleration data for each station jibanjeungpokryul assessment and geotechnical information for the purpose of providing earthquake signals H / V ratio by utilizing the frequency band amplified by the soil is proposed to derive. 3. Revision of the national seismic hazard parameters of the governing equations for the acceleration needed to validate the use proposed. In case of Korea has also been expanded, so that the accelerometer seismic network seismology and earthquake engineering research in the field is an active state.



 
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