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Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Session
THU1.4: The evolution of seismic ‘real time’ early warning and ‘reliable’ seismic prediction’ science
Time: Thursday, 30/Aug/2012: 8:30am - 10:00am
Session Chair: Garry DE LA POMERAI, VVSC FZ LLC UAE
Location: Sertig

Session organized by VVSC FZ LLC UAE


Presentations

The evolution of seismic ‘real time’ early warning and ‘reliable’ seismic prediction’ science

Garry DE LA POMERAI

VVSC FZ LLC UAE, United Kingdom

Session Background: Within recent years the development of ‘real time seismic early warnings’ has expanded considerably , developing state of art communications and dynamic data collation systems with instantaneous real time alarm options. The state of art technology now allows us to reliably communicate ahead of destructive seismic waves into homes offices and critical infrastructure including hospitals, schools, administrations, military and emergency services and disaster coordination centres. Reliable Seismic prediction science now offers the perfect combination for the whole of earthquake vulnerable society. However this newly achieved reliability presents a variety of challenges within the same society for both governments and the individual at home. Whilst technology advances, the social science of knowing how to prepare communities to receive and respond to seismic alarms is only just unfolding.

Session Objectives: We shall review the seismic real time early warning and reliable seismic prediction technology; explain the challenges within communications; and discuss the need for preparing society to receive seismic real time early warnings and reliable predictions potentially up to five days in advance of an event; the session will introduce a suggested new strategy for combining and using real time early warning systems and reliable seismic prediction information within society.

Session Aims & Outcomes: It is intended to develop a wider collaboration of stakeholders involved within the seismic real time early warning and prediction science and technology along with communication specialists in conjunction with DRR stakeholders within the field and Administrations responsible within vulnerable countries to create strategies, contingency plans and crisis coordination in reaction to receiving real time early warnings and reliable predictions. Whereas it is accepted that each sovereign country will experience its own challenges when handling early warning information, it is also recognised that due to the need for global cross border warning systems, a common strategy is now necessary to address technological advances available now, that until recently were only science fiction. Upon achieving the science, we now need to understand and agree on how to use it through the development of a clear, practical and acceptable action plan involving administrations, industry, critical infrastructure, media and communities along with the systems development designers.



 
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