Integrated risk assessment: what kind of multi-risk analysis to support the risk reduction decision-making process?
RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of
Natural and technological disasters that occurred in the world during the last decades showed an increased vulnerability of our society to different types of risks. These disasters acted as revelators of a greater exposure of the territories to multi-risk situations, i.e. situations where multiple hazardous sources can potentially impact multiple vulnerable elements. Decision-makers aiming at implementing a risk disaster reduction strategy face the challenge to deal, not only with one type of risk, but most often, with several types of risks that can potentially impact-separately or in combination- their territory of competency. Furthermore, they have typically to take into account other constraints such as budget restrictions, stakeholders’ requirements, political agendas etc.
As a consequence, risk management and civil protection authorities need to be supported, in order to define sustainable and integrated risk management practices. Risk management activities (prevention, mitigation, crisis management and recovery) require appropriate supports, tools and methodologies addressing these issues, with respect to the governance principle.
This session aims therefore at addressing the questions raised by the development of integrated risk management practices and multi-risk analysis and, in particular, how these can support the risk reduction decision-making process. This includes the discussion of the following issues: (1) A conceptual issue: there is a need to shift from single risk assessments, too often based on a hazard-centric perspective, towards integrated risks assessments, aiming at capturing the complexity of distributed hazards and vulnerable exposed elements over a territory. (2) A methodological issue: a multi-risk approach requires comparing and integrating hazards, vulnerable elements, damages, and risks that are very different in nature. Hence, what kind of multi-risk analysis can be developed, taking into account the constraints posed by data availability, the choice of indicators, the limits of existing tools, etc.? (3) A political issue: a multi-risk assessment is not to be seen as an end in itself, but rather as a way to support the risk reduction decision-making process. The multi-risk assessment results, as well as the development of the multi-risk approach should meet the decision-makers requirements, and support the various stages of the risk management process, for instance, to have a better understanding of the variety of risks over a territory, to prioritize the risk reduction actions or to optimize the distribution of their resources, to facilitate the communication to stakeholders, etc.
The main objective of the session is to discuss how these issues can be tackled, with a particular emphasis on the fact that multi-risk assessment, not only raises technical and methodological challenges, but raises also the question of how the integrated risk management can/should support the risk reduction decision-making process.
Specific objectives of the session are: (1) To understand how a multi-risk analysis can be developed and implemented, i.e. how difficulties linked to methodologies, data, and tools can be overcome; (2) To explore the strong interactions between multi-risk assessment and the risk reduction process; (3)To stimulate the reflection among speakers and the audience about considering the integrated risk assessment within the larger framework of territorial and land-use planning management.
To answer these objectives, the session will invite speakers coming from different backgrounds, with the view to reflect the multi-disciplinary nature of these issues.
The expected outcomes of the sessions are:
- To present case studies and examples of existing integrated risk management practices;
- To provide the audience with increased awareness of issues related to the strong interactions between the multirisk analysis and the related decision-making process;
- To give space to a debate on integrated risk management practices and their role within broader territory management.
List of participants
Considering the multi-disciplinary nature of the topics, five presentations from Academia (2), decision-makers (1), insurance (1) and risk consultants (1) are planned.
Fleming K, Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe: the MATRIX project, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Marcot N., Development of a multi-risk approach for the Pays A3V, France, BRGM-French Geological Survey Authorities
Brusamolino, L., Societal Security – the new standard ISO 22301 for Business Continuity Management
Salvador E., Multirisk approach and tools to support companies Risk managers, AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants
Dimauro C., Bouchon S., User requirements assessment to support the integrated risk management decision-making process, Risk Governance Solutions, Italy
Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment methods for Europe: the MATRIX project
German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany, Federal Republic of
Although many parts of Europe are under threat from a variety of natural hazards, scientists, engineers and civil protection and disaster management authorities usually treat them and the resulting consequences individually. This is despite the frequent spatial and temporal interactions between them, leading to scenarios where the total negative consequences may be greater than the sum of their parts. In addition, there is the range of spatial and temporal scales that natural hazards occur over, while at the same time being affected by different sources of uncertainty. As a consequence of these issues, the European Union under its FP7 program is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry. MATRIX is endeavouring to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and the resulting risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work is proceeding from an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, examining cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, a series of test cases (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies) and the development of an IT platform that will allow the methods developed to be evaluated against multi-type scenarios inferred for the test cases, and a generic tool for sensitivity studies. The project is also interacting with national and international platforms for disaster reduction to disseminate its findings and to gain insight to the needs of potential end users. MATRIX began in October, 2010, and will continue until September, 2013.
The multirisk approach for the Pays A3V, France, BRGM
The “Pays A3V” (Asse - Verdon - Vaïre - Var), located in the Alpes de Haute-Provence (southeast of France), is engaged in a process of sustainable development which aims to control, in particular, the land use evolution. This alpine land is particularly subject to major natural hazards which stay poorly known (landslide, torrential floods, forest fires, earthquakes…).
The objectives of this study are 1) an analysis of global risks across the country, through a cartographic atlas, and multi-hazards analysis (at scale 1/50000), 2) a multi risk analysis (at 1/25000) concerning two cities located in high-risk area, and 3) a proposal of risk management policy.
The multi-phenomenon analysis illustrates the comprehensive problem on the “Pays A3V” and the superposition of several hazards (up to 9 bunk hazards) on the same location is a strong marker (number of hazard issues on important areas, concentrations of population in the valleys…).
This analysis on two municipalities subject to many hazards (Allos and Castellane) aims to propose a comprehensive methodology in order to study more in detail these areas using existing documents such as hazard maps from Risk Prevention Planning, and to consider also the historical events associated with the hazards to study the possible impacts.
An investigation on impacts and damage has been carried out to identify, describe and evaluate each type of injury (physical and functional) and its consequences (impact). Each item physically assigned (person, properties, environment) is considered as generating a functional disorder (housing, education, transport) which itself causes impacts on different topics (social, economic, environmental).
Cross-analysis at communal scale, of hazards, issues and vulnerabilities have been made by categories of issues and type of damage depending touristic period.
The results of this multi-scale approach give original elements to propose actions in terms of risk management, and develop a sustainable land use planning.
Societal Security – the new standard ISO 22301 for Business Continuity Management
CISM, CRISC – Managing Director Southern Europe BSI
BSI ISO 22301 is the new international standard for business continuity management recently published in May 2012.The standard provides the requirements for a business continuity management system (BCMS) and is based on global BCM best practices.
BSI (British Standard Institution), the world-leader in standards and certification services, is one of the pioneers of the original BCM best practice standard BS 25999 that has now been superseded by ISO 22301.The new standard ISO 22301 now comes under a wider societal security remit, acknowledging the important role that BCM has to play in protecting society and ensuring our ability to respond to incidents, emergencies and disasters.
The new international standard very much considers the organizations as part of the wider community, taking into account in the risk scenario and in the definition of emergency plans all stakeholders (supply chain, partners, local authorities,…).The standard provides a foundation and a common vocabulary and framework for BCM best practices and processes and is expected to be widely adopted.
Risk engineering decision tools for risk management support
AXA Matrix Risk Consultants, Italy, Republic of
The article introduces two methodologies with associated tools, expressly developed by AXA MATRIX to support Risk Managers in the visualization and monitoring processes of industrial plants risks.
These tools allow conducting impact of investments for risk mitigation, thus achieving measurable targets and KPI’s in terms of risk level reduction. The tools described in the article are the ISORISKTM, a risk mapping methodology of a given number of assessed plants, and CITRANTM (Critical Investment To Reach Acceptable Normal Loss Expectancy), for the display of the impact of investments on the protection/ prevention risk level for each plant.
ISORISKTM allows highlighting both the maximum exposure (peak risk) and the harmful events occurrence probability (“Vulnerability”). The methodology is based both on Vulnerability assessment (evaluation of the likelihood that some harmful events may occur) and Severity assessment (quantification of loss expectancy taking into account existing means of prevention and protection).
CITRANTM curves allow both to highlight the recommendations needed to reduce the highest exposures to set levels (and their relative cost) and their impact on global risk value.
By combining these tools, the article shows how it is possible both to quantify the risk level related to a population of sites, to simulate different investments impact and to set quantifiable objectives and KPI’s in terms of risk level reduction. An application concerning the previous cited methodologies is also illustrated in the article. In particular, costs benefits of both ISORISKTM mapping and CITRANTM curves deriving from specific recommendation implementation will be outlined. The development of new means of communication and synthesis, outlined in the article, underlines on one hand how much it is important to use qualitative tools for different risks analysis and, on the other one, the need for new synthesis and reporting methods for the risk management process.
User requirements assessment to support the integrated risk management decision-making process
Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l., Italy, Republic of
In order to define risk reduction strategies, the public administrations in charge of risk management policies have to manage large territories characterized by multiple types of risks, i.e. natural and technological risks. Natural and technological risks are characterized by different phenomenology, frequency of occurrence, magnitude of impact. They also present different level of acceptability and perception among stakeholders. Therefore, multi-risk assessment is an innovative approach for identifying the most critical areas of a territory, with the view to support public authorities in defining and prioritizing mitigation and emergency management strategies. A multi-risk approach poses many challenges, since it requires combining a large amount of information about the hazards, the exposed targets and the related vulnerability values. The systematic and coherent interpretation of such information by the decision-makers is not simple, in particular when this information supports a decision-making process involving many stakeholders. Hence, it is particularly interesting and effective to have a tool that facilitates the integration of the information and the communication to and among stakeholders. Decision-making in this field is an iterative cognitive process and, for this reason, decision support applications must be built in a manner that permits changes to occur easily and quickly, without losing in accuracy of reference information. This improves the efficiency of the negotiation process allowing stakeholders to screen and to focus on the relevant dimension of the problem of concern. The conference contribution will report the results of several programmes aiming at defining multi-risk mitigation plans in Italy and will illustrate the main functionality of the related GIS-based decision support system for defining mitigation strategies. In particular, the focus will be laid on how such an approach meets the requirements of the risk management decision process.