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Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Session
TUE4.3: Natech risk reduction after the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami
Time: Tuesday, 28/Aug/2012: 1:00pm - 2:30pm
Session Chair: Elisabeth KRAUSMANN, European Commission
Session Chair: Hirokazu TATANO, Kyoto University
Location: Sertig

Session organized by the European Commission, Joint Research Centre


Presentations

Natech risk reduction after the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami

Elisabeth KRAUSMANN1, Ana Maria CRUZ2, Hirokazu TATANO3

1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; 2Consultant, Natech risk management and emergency planning, France, and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Japan; 3Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan

The Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March 2011 triggered several major Natech accidents, most notably crippling a nuclear power plant and causing the worst nuclear accident in recent times, as well as sparking multiple fires and explosions in major petrochemical complexes. Many critical infrastructures, e.g. power supply and communication, were severely damaged or destroyed which resulted in supply disruptions and in the case of the Fukushima nuclear power plant contributed to the nuclear disaster. This shows that infrastructure service interruptions can not only trigger or exacerbate a Natech accident but they can affect emergency-response efforts that depend on the availability of utilities. The March 2011 Natech events are of particular importance as they occurred in one of the best prepared countries in the world. Important lessons can be learned on the performance of existing Natech risk reduction measures in preventing or mitigating hazardous-materials releases, or the necessity for a more far-reaching management of Natech risk.

The proposed interdisciplinary session aims at addressing the questions raised by the occurrence of the Natech accidents during the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami to highlight the need for integrated risk management to make society more resilient. This includes the identification and discussion of: (1) Possible gaps in Natech risk management and their reason (e.g. lack of awareness, data, models or tools?); (2) The role of critical-infrastructure systems (lifelines) in causing, preventing and mitigating Natech accidents; (3) Requirements for Natech-specific accident prevention and preparedness planning based on lessons learned; (4) Pathways towards more effective Natech risk management to make industrial facilities and thereby society less vulnerable.

The proposed session aims at addressing these issues by bringing together experts with a stake in Natech risk management from research, engineering, disaster risk management and decision making. The session hopes to foster integrated industrial risk management by presenting case studies and lessons learned, as well as by demonstrating examples of latest methodological developments useful for future disaster planning.


Natech accidents following the great eastern japan earthquake and tsunami

Elisabeth KRAUSMANN1, Ana Maria CRUZ2

1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; 2Consultant, Natech risk management and emergency planning, France, and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Japan

An earthquake of magnitude 9.0 occurred off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan, on March 11, 2011, at 14:46:23 Japan Standard Time. It generated a tsunami 130 km off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture in northeast Japan, which inundated over 400 km2 of land. The death toll has reached almost 16,000 with over 3,000 people still missing. The earthquake and tsunami also triggered several major Natech accidents, most notably crippling a nuclear power plant and causing the worst nuclear accident in recent times, as well as sparking multiple fires and explosions in major petrochemical complexes and hazardous-materials releases in other types of industry. In addition, many chemical companies had to interrupt production due to a loss of utilities (water, electricity), damage to berths, roads, etc., shortage of raw materials and because of continuous aftershocks, tsunami alerts and the evacuation of personnel. The direct losses amount to more than 200 billion US dollars (not considering the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident). Although the earthquake generated strong ground motion most damage was due to tsunami impact, which highlights the effectiveness of Japan’s earthquake risk reduction measures. Nevertheless, the Tohoku disaster shows that even prepared countries are at risk of major Natech events and offers an opportunity to learn lessons for future Natech accident prevention and mitigation. In order to understand the main reasons for the industrial damage and downtime an analysis of data collected from companies and authorities was performed. The results of this analysis are presented. Particular attention is given to the refinery fires in the Chiba and Miyagi Prefectures and preliminary lessons learned are presented.


Indirect economic impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake: approach by Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model

Yoshio KAJITANI1, Hirokazu TATANO2

1Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; 2Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan

The economic indicator such as the production index in Japan reveals that the indirect impacts in industrial sectors following the Great East Japan Earthquake is significantly large. There were multiple sources of impacts, which interdependently affect not only the firms in the physically damaged area, but also those in the non-damaged areas in Japan. Many materials and manufacturing parts suppliers were located in the Tsunami and earthquake affected regions and scarcity of their productions induce supply-chain impacts to other industries all over Japan and some of manufacturing industries in the world. In order to review and learn these cascading impacts and develop the indirect economic impact assessment model for the future disasters in the world, we arrange and apply the spatial computable general equilibrium model to the case of supply shock occurred in Tohoku and North-Kanto regions. The obtained results under different key assumptions of the model are investigated comparing with several observed data sets such as economic indicators and the results from questionnaire surveys.


Measuring industrial production capacity caking account of malfunctions of production capital and lifeline systems disruptions caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 11 March, 2011

Hirokazu TATANO1, Yoshio KAJITANI2

1Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; 2Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan

The paper aims at presenting a methodology to estimate production capacity losses after the disaster to identify the major sources of impacts as well as to test the forecasting capability of available models. Data collected from pre- and post-disaster business surveys in Japan are utilized to develop empirical models for capacity loss estimation. Fragility curves for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors that have been developed to relate ground motion to production capacity loss from facility damage. The paper also employs resilience factors to estimate the production capacity under conditions of lifeline disruption. A case study is conducted for the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami March 11th, 2011. The validity of the proposed methodology is verified by checking the fitness between observed data, the industrial production index, and the estimated production capacity ratio. We find that the proposed method has a relatively good fit for the observed data.


RAPID-N: A tool for mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes

Serkan GIRGIN1, Elisabeth KRAUSMANN2

1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy; 2European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy

Major accidents at industrial facilities triggered by natural hazards (natechs) are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. However, methodologies and tools to assess natech risks are still limited in many aspects. Recent EU and OECD-wide surveys have shown that hardly any natech risk maps, which identify natech-prone areas and show the associated risk, exist in the Member States. In order to bridge this gap, a study was launched to develop a unified natech risk-mapping methodology. As a first step, a probabilistic natech risk-mapping methodology was envisaged for earthquakes and was implemented as a software tool called RAPID-N. RAPID-N is a web-based, open, and collaborative application allowing rapid natech risk assessment and mapping with minimum data input. It uses fragility curves for natural hazard damage estimation and utilizes simple models for consequence analysis based on natech event scenarios. In order to minimize data requirements the tools has an advanced data estimation framework to calculate on-site hazard parameters and site, process equipment, and hazardous substance properties. The tool also monitors on-line earthquake catalogs and provides an up-to-date earthquake database with source and on-site hazard parameters to be used for natech risk assessment. A basic set of fragility curves from the literature is supplied for the damage assessment. User-defined damage states and fragility curves are also supported for different types of process equipment. Conditional and probabilistic relationships can be specified between damage states and probable natech event scenarios. Natech consequences are assessed using the Risk Management Program methodology of US EPA. The results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps. RAPID-N can be used by authorities for land-use and emergency-planning purposes by using scenario earthquakes. It can also be utilized for rapid natech related damage estimation following actual earthquakes.



 
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